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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Qualitative modeling of tourism development in the Altai Republic: a comparison of the single-criterion and multi-criterion models

Vol. 7, Iss. 35, SEPTEMBER 2014

Available online: 21 September 2014

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 59-67

Khazova D.S. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
d.hazova@gmail.com

Importance Under the current conditions, tourism in the economy of many countries plays a prominent role. The formation of a tourist sector in the Altai Republic is a factor of activation of the whole regional economy. In this context, the problem of creating an effective system of sustainable tourism is becoming increasingly important.
     Objectives The objective of this research is the development of qualitative model in order to define the effective strategies of the development of the tourist branch of the Altai Republic. The achievement of the stated objective requires solving the following tasks: a brief analysis of the current status of the tourist branch development in the region; determination of the criteria of the optimal solution of the issues of tourism development; the comparison of single-criterion and multi-criterion models of tourism industry development.
     Methods In the paper, I applied the qualitative modeling in order to analyze the various scenarios of tourist industry development in the region and defined the optimal cluster of dynamics of the variables as of the current date, as well as I have carried out their analysis.
     Results The fundamental principles and the main results, contained in the paper, can be used to build an effective system of tourism management, at the levels both of regional power structures and tourist business subjects. An algorithm of qualitative modeling, which is developed and implemented with the help of the R programming language, has an independent scientific and practical importance. We emphasize that the tourism industry of the region may assume an international level by means of reducing the negative impact of the developed infrastructure on the environment. Taking into account a socio-cultural factor, this enables to achieve a higher pace of development.
     Conclusions and Relevance The algorithm of qualitative modeling can be used for specific tourism projects, optimization of investment into tourist branch, and also for quality modeling of complex systems of various spheres in the regional economy.

Keywords: complex system, qualitative modeling, ecological tourism, sustainable tourism, investment management

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