Mikhail D. ANTIPOVCorresponding author, Astrakhan State Technical University (ASTU), Astrakhan, Russian Federation veb.atix@yandex.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. Socio-economic indicators of the Astrakhan region and their interrelation in the context of forecasting the gross regional product per capita, taking into account external factors. Objectives. To analyze the dynamics of key socio-economic indicators of the Astrakhan Oblast, compare alternative ARIMAX specifications and select the most stable model for forecasting the gross regional product per capita for 2025-2027.To analyze the dynamics of key socio-economic indicators of the Astrakhan region, compare alternative ARIMAX specifications and select the most stable model for forecasting the gross regional product per capita for 2025–2027. Methods. Methods of economic, statistical and econometric analysis are applied, including time series analysis, stationarity verification, comparison of alternative ARIMAX specifications according to information criteria, diagnosis of residuals and forecast error at the control observation. Results. It has been established that the socio-economic dynamics of the Astrakhan Oblast is heterogeneous: the growth of per capita income and GRP per capita is combined with persistent structural constraints, including investment instability and social inequality. A comparison of several ARIMAX specifications has shown that the model provides the best results in levels with lagging investments. It provided a minimal forecast error for the control year 2024 and more convincing economic coefficients in comparison with alternative options. The forecast based on the chosen model shows that GRP per capita in the Astrakhan Oblast may amount to 1,182,175 rubles in 2025, 1,427,272 rubles in 2026 and 1,384,342 rubles in 2027. Conclusions. To analyze and forecast a regional product, it is not enough to take into account only the internal dynamics of the series itself. More stable estimates are provided by the inclusion of external factors reflecting the income situation, income distribution and the investment process.
Keywords: ARIMAX, GRP per capita, per capita income of the population, investments in fixed assets, Astrakhan Oblast
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