Subject. Formation of a methodology for scenario modeling of the development of an innovative resource in regional agriculture. Objectives. Development of a methodological approach to choosing a model for innovative agricultural development in a region, depending on the state of its innovation resource. Methods. Systems, institutional, comparative and simulation approaches, as well as general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis were used to identify the structural components of the innovation resource and their interrelationships. Results. Based on the assessment of the innovation resource in four interrelated blocks (economic resources, organizational and legal mechanism, innovative system of agricultural entrepreneurship and the effectiveness of achieving the goals of innovative development), a consolidated economic indicator of the innovation resource has been formed. The ranking of regions by four levels of this indicator is justified: critical, low, medium and high. To introduce and develop innovations in the agricultural sector, a map of 10 innovative development models has been developed, arranged in a sequential series according to the degree of complexity and resource capacity. An important result of the research was the creation of a scenario modeling matrix. Conclusions. The study confirmed the expediency of ranking agricultural innovation development models depending on the level of the region's innovation resource, since it is precisely this differentiation that provides the theoretical and applied validity of the choice of regional innovation policy instruments. It has been established that for regions with an average level of innovation resource, the most appropriate model is innovation adaptation, focused on the development and replication of already proven technological and organizational management solutions. The results of the study can be applied by regional government bodies to develop innovative agricultural development programs, branch ministries in substantiating the priorities of state support for innovation activities, scientific and educational organizations for the formation of training materials.
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