Subject. Territorial asymmetry and comparative effectiveness of financial instruments of state support for small and medium-sized businesses in the Northwestern Federal District. Objectives. To assess the level of interregional differentiation in the availability of support measures for SMEs, to identify the nature of the impact of the structure of financial instruments (the ratio of refundable and non-refundable forms of financing) on the dynamics of the sector, as well as to determine the presence of a threshold effect, above which the effectiveness of support increases qualitatively. Methods. The study is based on the application of economic and statistical methods: calculation of the coefficient of variation to assess interregional differentiation, correlation analysis and cluster analysis to study the relationship between the structure of support and the dynamics of the number of SMEs. The empirical basis was made up of data from the Unified Register of Small and Medium-sized Businesses for 2020–2024 in 11 regions of the Northwestern Federal District. Results. A steady trend towards deepening territorial asymmetry in the availability of support has been revealed: the average coefficient of variation in the coverage of small and medium-sized businesses with support measures over the period was 43.3%, reaching an extremely high level in 2023 (58.4%). The nonlinear, threshold nature of the influence of the structure of financial instruments on performance has been established. A positive effect in the form of an increase in the number of SMEs is observed only when the share of repayment instruments (concessional loans, guarantees) exceeds 60%, where the average growth rate reaches 6.37%. In regions with a share of refundable instruments below 40%, a decline was recorded (–1.51%). Correlation analysis did not reveal a significant linear relationship, which confirms the need for a cluster approach to detect threshold effects. Conclusions. The results obtained make it possible to differentiate regional support strategies depending on the current structure of the instruments: for regions with a low share of repayable financing (less than 40%), accelerated increase in loans and guarantees is required, for regions with an average share (40-60%) – gradual achievement of the threshold level, for leading regions (over 60%) – scaling of successful the practitioner. It is necessary to adjust the regional policy of supporting small and medium-sized businesses aimed at reducing interregional imbalances and purposefully increasing the share of refundable financial instruments to a level exceeding the identified critical threshold of 60%.
Keywords: financial support instruments, repayment instruments, territorial differentiation, threshold effect
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