Methodological tools for assessing and forecasting regional changes: The case study of old industrial Southwestern regions of the Central Federal District of Russia
Subject. Formation of methodological approaches to the assessment and predictive modeling of the socioeconomic dynamics of the old industrial regions of the southwestern border region of Russia in the context of modern geopolitical challenges. Objectives. To test a methodology for assessing and forecasting regional dynamics in relation to the specifics of the old industrial southwestern regions of Russia in the context of the implementation of national projects of the Russian Federation and the current geopolitical situation. Methods. Methods of systems, comparative, statistical, and regression analyses were applied. Results. The current specifics of the regional development of the old industrial regions of the southwestern border region of Russia in the context of modern geopolitical challenges are determined. The elements of the methodology for assessing and forecasting indicators of socioeconomic development of the region are described. The algorithm of modeling the indicators of the forecast of socioeconomic development of the region is specified. The indicator of the gross regional product in basic prices for the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Smolensk regions in dynamics for 2016-2023 is analyzed. Regression models of the indicator and the confidence interval for the described dynamics of the indicator are determined. It is established that there is no need to make corrective management decisions within the framework of regional policy. The results of the study can be applied by regional authorities to adjust strategies for the development of the border region, federal agencies in monitoring the risks of socioeconomic development of regions. Conclusions. Traditional models of assessment and forecasting of regional socioeconomic dynamics do not sufficiently take into account modern external challenges. The proposed methodology for assessing and predicting regional dynamics makes it possible to move from reactive to predictive management, ensuring the sustainability of territories and timely response to risks in conditions of uncertainty.
Keywords: forecasting, regional socioeconomic indicators, old industrial regions
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