Muslim I. CHAZHAEVCorresponding author, Kadyrov Chechen State University (Kadyrov CHSU), Grozny, Chechen Republic, Russian Federation mchajaev@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. Types of crisis resilience. Objectives. To investigate different types of resilience to the crises that have occurred over the past twenty years – the global recession of 2008, the currency crisis of 2014 and the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. To identify changes in GDP dynamics caused by crises, a combined econometric approach was used, including least squares trend modeling and cubic spline interpolation. Results. An assessment of economic sustainability has been carried out by comparing pre-crisis economic growth trends with real changes in dynamics observed during the development of crises and during post-crisis recovery periods. The analysis of these changes allowed us to determine the individual characteristics of sustainability for macro-regions with different levels of economic development. The analysis showed that economic sustainability is a complex concept that includes the ability to resist crisis phenomena and prompt post-crisis recovery. Conclusions. The developed spline dynamics models made it possible to identify and quantify two key stability parameters: resistance at the initial stage of the crisis and recovery potential. Differentiation of spline models made it possible to obtain velocity curves, which proved to be a valuable tool for analyzing small changes in GDP dynamics, allowing us to identify pre-crisis growth decelerations that are not always obvious in traditional econometric models.
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