+7 925 966 4690, 9am6pm (GMT+3), Monday – Friday
ИД «Финансы и кредит»

JOURNALS

  

FOR AUTHORS

  

SUBSCRIBE

    
Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

The impact of news about sanctions on the Russian stock market index dynamics

ISSUE 11, NOVEMBER 2025

Received: 11 July 2025

Accepted: 28 August 2025

Available online: 18 November 2025

Subject Heading: ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CAPITAL

JEL Classification: G14, G41

Pages: 158-170

https://doi.org/10.24891/lkiqva

Elena A. FEDOROVA Corresponding author, Institute of Financial and Industrial Policy, Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
ecolena@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3381-6116

Lyubov' E. KHRUSTOVA Institute of Financial and Industrial Policy, Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
lehrustova@fa.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0884-2734

Subject. The article discusses the index of the Russian stock market.
Objectives. The purpose is to determine the influence of the tone and subject of news about sanctions on the dynamics of the Russian stock market index.
Methods. The research methodology includes the use of text analysis to assess the tone of news about sanctions published in the media, identify thematic clusters within the news array, and build the GARCH model to determine the impact of news about sanctions on the dynamics of the Russian stock market index.
Results. The study determined that the dynamics of the stock index is influenced only by news about sanctions that have a specific theme – news related to the impact of sanctions on the economy and the assessment of losses by experts, news about sanctions against the Russian financial system, and news about sanctions from countries other than the United States and the EU, while different topics have a multidirectional impact. The news, reflecting the expert assessment of the imposed sanctions and their impact on the economy, cause positive dynamics of the index.
Conclusions. The changes taking place in the Russian stock market are caused not only by the introduction of sanctions restrictions, but also by news about restrictions broadcast in official information sources. Only negative and neutral news of a certain thematic focus turn out to be significant.

Keywords: stock market, stock index, sanctions, Moscow Exchange index, text analysis

References:

  1. Aganin A.D. [Russian stock index volatility: Oil and sanctions]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2020, no. 2, pp. 86–100. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2020-2-86-100 EDN: EWHCAW
  2. Glebova A.G., Kovaleva A.A. [Forecasting the volatility of the Russian stock market in the context of international economic sanctions]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2024, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 20–29. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2024-28-1-20-29 EDN: CEVSRS
  3. Rychkov V.V. [Analysis of the impact of the sanctions news on Russian financial markets]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2024, no. 2, pp. 71–115. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.52180/2073-6487_2024_2_71_115 EDN: YKILCZ
  4. Sukhanova I.F., Lyavina M.Yu. [Economic sanctions: Content, goals, motives, efficiency]. Agrarnyi nauchnyi zhurnal, 2018, no. 4, pp. 88–93. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.28983/asj.v0i4.454 EDN: UNZYUW
  5. Klimova N.I. ["Economy of sanctions" as an area of scientific research: Theoretical basis and provisions]. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya, 2016, no. 5-2, pp. 357–361. (In Russ.) EDN: WBCXHJ
  6. McLean E.V., Whang T. Friends or foes? Major trading partners and the success of economic sanctions. International Studies Quarterly, 2010, vol. 54, no. 2, pp. 427–447. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00594.x
  7. Bapat N.A., Heinrich T., Yoshiharu Kobayashi, Morgan T. Determinants of sanctions effectiveness: Sensitivity analysis using new data. International Interactions, 2013, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 79–98. DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2013.751298
  8. Neuenkirch M., Neumeier F. The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 2015, vol. 40, part A, pp. 110–125. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.09.001
  9. Ghorbani Dastgerdi H., Yusof Z.B., Shahbaz M. Nexus between economic sanctions and inflation: A case study in Iran. Applied Economics, 2018, vol. 50, iss. 49, pp. 5316–5334. DOI: Link
  10. Dizaji S.F., Van Bergeijk P.A.G. Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions: A VAR approach with an application to Iran. Journal of Peace Research, 2013, vol. 50, iss. 6, pp. 721–736. DOI: 10.1177/0022343313485487
  11. Rahmanpour E., Abed B., Olfati S. The Effect of Trade Sanctions on Stock Indexes in Different Industries Listed in the Stock Exchange. Financial Management Strategy, 2021, vol. 9, iss. 3, pp. 161–176. DOI: 10.22051/jfm.2020.28397.2220
  12. Roudari S., Ahmadian-Yazdi F., Arabi S.H., Hammoudeh S. Sanctions and Iranian stock market: Does the institutional quality matter? Borsa Istanbul Review, 2023, vol. 23, iss. 4, pp. 919–935. DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2023.03.006
  13. Sverdlov M.Yu., Seliverstov S.I., Zinoviev A.G., Kuzmin P.I. The Impact of Sanctions on Stock and Industry Indices of Countries that Initiated Sanctions and Countries Subject to Sanctions. In: Maximova S.G., Raikin R.I., Chibilev A.A., Silantyeva M.M. (eds) Advances in Natural, Human-Made, and Coupled Human-Natural Systems Research. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 234. Springer, Cham, 2023, pp. 167–178. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-75483-9_17
  14. Jabari L., Salem A.A., Zamani O., Farzanegan M.R. Economic sanctions and energy efficiency: Evidence from Iranian industrial sub-sectors. Energy Economics, 2024, vol. 139, no. 107920. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107920
  15. Larch M., Shikher S., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y.V. Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors. Economic Inquiry, 2022, vol. 60, iss. 3, pp. 1038–1063. DOI: Link
  16. Fedorova E., Nevredinov A., Chernikova L. [The impact of sanctions on the capitalization of Russian companies: The sectoral aspect]. Korporativnye finansy, 2023, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 50–67. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.17323/j.jcfr.2073-0438.17.2.2023.50-67 EDN: SHHWFU

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8725 (Online)
ISSN 2073-039X (Print)

Journal current issue

ISSUE 11
NOVEMBER 2025

Archive

Видите ошибку в отчестве? Отключите перевод, это английская версия сайта!