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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Development of an analytical model for assessing the risks of financial and economic activities of State (municipal) institutions based on the pairwise comparison method

ISSUE 10, OCTOBER 2024

Received: 22 July 2024

Received in revised form: 13 August 2024

Accepted: 1 September 2024

Available online: 30 October 2024

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: L32, M40, M42

Pages: 1965-1979

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.23.10.1965

Sergei V. GOLOVIN Voronezh State University (VSU), Voronezh, Russian Federation
golovin@econ.vsu.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9722-4523

Subject. The article considers developing an analytical model to assess the risks of financial and economic activities of State (municipal) institutions.
Objectives. The aim is to devise a comprehensive analytical model for assessing the risks of financial and economic activities of State (municipal) institutions, taking into account their specific activities, and assess these risks.
Methods. The study employs general and specific scientific methods of cognition (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, grouping, comparison, expert assessment, mathematical methods, like the method of analyzing hierarchies, etc.).
Results. I designed an analytical (mathematical) model of integral indicator for risk assessment in State (municipal) institutions’ financial and economic activities, offered a scale used to assess such risks. The proposed mathematical model was tested in several State institutions, with the presentation of results.
Conclusions. The development of software using intelligent technologies based on the analytical model of integral indicator will enable to more quickly and effectively assess the risks of financial and economic activities of a State (municipal) institution, and track the dynamics of risk changes.

Keywords: risk, financial and economic activity, State (municipal) institution, departmental control, pairwise comparison method

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