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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Analysis of innovation activity in Russia

Vol. 23, Iss. 7, JULY 2024

Received: 28 March 2024

Received in revised form: 26 April 2024

Accepted: 14 May 2024

Available online: 30 July 2024

Subject Heading: Innovation

JEL Classification: C01, C32

Pages: 1306–1316

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.23.7.1306

Ilona V. TREGUB Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
itregub@fa.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7329-8344

Bakhtinur Sh. SABITOV Joint Stock Innovation Commercial Bank Ipak Yuli, Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan
sabitovbakhtinur@gmail.com

ORCID id: not available

Subject. The article addresses the innovation activity as a key factor in achieving sustainable economic growth in the long term.
Objectives. The aim is to build a model of innovation activity in Russia, to hold necessary tests to verify the constructed model for adequacy and suitability for further forecasting.
Methods. The statistical data for the study were taken from the official website of Rosstat and cover the period 2012–2022. The aggregate volume of goods and services was chosen as the projected indicator. Special software (Gretl) was used to process statistical data, and the least squares method was used to calculate the econometric model.
Results. We obtained the final regression formula. On its basis, we identified exact multi-digit values of the relationship between the dependent variable and regressors. The heteroscedasticity revealed in the initial model was eliminated using the weighted least squares method. The paper established that an increase in each of the external variables leads to a significant increase in the predicted indicator.
Conclusions. Using tests, it was found that the resulting model is suitable for forecasting. The quantitative relationships between variables identified in the model will be useful in subsequent research in this area.

Keywords: innovation activity, econometric model, regression coefficient

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