Subject. The article addresses the innovation activity as a key factor in achieving sustainable economic growth in the long term. Objectives. The aim is to build a model of innovation activity in Russia, to hold necessary tests to verify the constructed model for adequacy and suitability for further forecasting. Methods. The statistical data for the study were taken from the official website of Rosstat and cover the period 2012–2022. The aggregate volume of goods and services was chosen as the projected indicator. Special software (Gretl) was used to process statistical data, and the least squares method was used to calculate the econometric model. Results. We obtained the final regression formula. On its basis, we identified exact multi-digit values of the relationship between the dependent variable and regressors. The heteroscedasticity revealed in the initial model was eliminated using the weighted least squares method. The paper established that an increase in each of the external variables leads to a significant increase in the predicted indicator. Conclusions. Using tests, it was found that the resulting model is suitable for forecasting. The quantitative relationships between variables identified in the model will be useful in subsequent research in this area.
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