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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

A predictive model to assess the impact of human capital on the development of venture business in Russia

Vol. 23, Iss. 6, JUNE 2024

Received: 22 February 2024

Received in revised form: 14 March 2024

Accepted: 12 April 2024

Available online: 28 June 2024


JEL Classification: C53, C65, E27, O15, O32

Pages: 1149–1164


Nina M. BARANOVA Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), Moscow, Russian Federation


Sergei N. LARIN Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS (CEMI RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation


Subject. The article examines the impact of human capital on the development of venture business in Russia.
Objectives. The study aims at modeling and evaluating the impact of improving the quality of human capital on the development of venture business through the volume of venture project outputs, and determining the dependence of the volume of venture project outputs on the volume of investments.
Methods. We employed methods of regression analysis and econometric modeling, using MS Excel and Eviews10 tools, materials of the Rosstat, World Bank, Dsight, Human Development Report, Russian Venture Capital Association for 2007–2021.
Results. We constructed linear and exponential models for assessing the impact of improving the quality of human capital on the development of venture business. The obtained models can be used for short-term forecasting and assessing the impact of improving the quality of human capital on the development of venture business. The paper proved that the exponential model gives a more accurate forecast.
Conclusions. The development of venture business can become a breakthrough direction in the knowledge-intensive sector of the economy.

Keywords: human capital, venture capital, high technology, sanction, development, modeling


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ISSN 2311-8725 (Online)
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Vol. 23, Iss. 6
June 2024