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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Ways to achieve a balance in the global oil market under sanctions restrictions

Vol. 23, Iss. 3, MARCH 2024

Received: 29 January 2024

Received in revised form: 10 February 2024

Accepted: 3 March 2024

Available online: 28 March 2024

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: С71, С72, F51, F53, F68

Pages: 578–600

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.23.3.578

Mikhail I. KUTERNIN State University of Management (SUM), Moscow, Russian Federation
kadet503122@list.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2388-5951

Subject. The article considers the oil market functioning under sanctions restrictions.
Objectives. The aims are to determine indicators characterizing the ability of the oil market to resist the sanctions, develop tools to study the impact of sanctions on the stability of the energy market, analyze economic consequences of the embargo on the purchase of oil from some producers, perform an economic analysis of possibilities of achieving equilibrium market conditions under an oil embargo.
Methods. The main research tool is mathematical modeling of the market. The methodology rests on the study of changes in the typification of the market, caused by the introduction of sanctions restrictions into its regulatory system. This enables to build a game-theoretic model of the market, suitable for its research in the current state.
Results. I determined the main indicators characterizing the global oil market functioning under sanctions, constructed a game-theoretic model, examined the market and determined its critical parameters during the introduction of the embargo on the purchase of oil from some producers. The paper defines ways to stabilize the market under the embargo.
Conclusions. The model is suitable for studying the current state of the global oil market. Under the current conditions, attempts by consumer countries to circumvent their own sanctions are possible to stabilize the market, which lead to the introduction of secondary sanctions and an increase in market volatility. It is also feasible to enter into contracts between individual large oil producers and consumers at preferential prices. The study of non-market methods of market regulation, specific to the current market situation, is possible by including consumer countries in the model’s set of players.

Keywords: global oil market, sanctions restrictions, goods with saturated demand, game-theoretic model, oil embargo

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