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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

A methodology to analyze the economic dynamics of complex systems at the stages of State programs development

Vol. 22, Iss. 4, APRIL 2023

Received: 19 March 2023

Received in revised form: 27 March 2023

Accepted: 3 April 2023

Available online: 27 April 2023


JEL Classification: О21, О32, О33

Pages: 620–645


Aleksandr V. LEONOV Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences (RARAN), Moscow, Russian Federation


Aleksei Yu. PRONIN Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences (RARAN), Moscow, Russian Federation


Subject. The article addresses the economic dynamics of complex systems at the stages of government programs development, and its analysis as a multi-level and multi-stage cyclic non-equilibrium process.
Objectives. The purpose is to devise universal methodological tools for analyzing the economic dynamics to ensure its sustainability in the current geopolitical and economic situation in the world.
Methods. The study employs the method of program-based and goal-oriented planning to create and develop complex systems for various purposes. The methodology rests on the theory of self-organization, in respect of the entropic approach to non-equilibrium processes as a new paradigm of analytical study of the economic dynamics of complex systems at the stages of State programs development.
Results. Based on the entropic approach, we constructed a cyclic model that reflects a multi-level and multi-stage process of the formation of economic dynamics. Using the latter, we formulated new theoretical and practical provisions, including a technology for the formation of sustainable economic dynamics, which rests on parametric and criteria passports. The paper describes the content of the proposed passports and gives examples of their practical use for the sustainability of the economic dynamics of complex systems, considering possible risks in the development of government programs. We established that the stability of economic dynamics is ensured by joint substantiation of the parametric and criteria passports, which, taken together, are presented as a law of the formation of stable economic dynamics. This provision is among the most important results of the study of economic dynamics, which has a theoretic and applied nature.
Conclusions. The findings can be used to develop scientific and technological programs and different-purpose projects, identify ways and means of sustainable innovative and technological development of the country, ensure defense and national security of the Russian Federation.

Keywords: economic dynamics, complex system, methodology, government program


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