Subject. The article investigates cost drivers of research and development, analyzes key indicators of R&D costs characterizing the technical and operational perfection of science-intensive products, using the case of civilian and multipurpose helicopters. Objectives. The aim is to develop an econometric model of dependence of R&D costs on basic performance specifications of the helicopter to decide whether R&D should be undertaken. Methods. The study rests on the theory of fundamental value of assets, econometric methods of data analysis, the time value of money, and also on the theory of purchasing power parity, and unbiased expectations theory of interest rates. Results. The paper unveils the main sources of R&D cost growth for new-generation products in the science-intensive industries. Based on the econometric analysis, we highlight the main determinants of R&D costs, i.e. flight and technical characteristics of the helicopter, which determine the operational efficiency of design and technological decisions taken. We constructed a model to obtain the predictive estimate of R&D cost for Russian helicopters costs. Conclusions. The statistics on R&D costs of Russian civil helicopters does not sufficiently reflect their fair (market) value. Efficient markets are sources of more objective data on R&D costs of science-intensive products. When modeling the market value of R&D for Russian helicopters, it is advisable to rely on the Western markets data, with recalculation of development costs according to the economic conditions of the Russian aviation market. The analog method enables to quickly obtain a preliminary estimate of R&D costs.
Keywords: Research, Development, Test & Evaluation (RDT&E), econometric modeling, Balassa–Samuelson effect, yield to maturity, country risk
References:
Boginskii A.I., Chursin A.A. [Model of cost estimation for the implementation of R & D to create a new helicopter equipment]. Ekonomika i upravlenie: problemy, resheniya = Economics and Management: Problems, Solutions, 2019, vol. 11, iss. 2, pp. 134–140. (In Russ.)
Il'ina I.E. [Approaches to assessing the efficiency of public investment in research and development sector]. Nauka. Innovatsii. Obrazovanie = Science. Innovation. Education, 2016, vol. 11, iss. 3, pp. 104–122. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kuznetsov A.G., Chaika N.K., Surkova E.V., Ermolaeva E.N. [The cost of R&D and serial production of aircraft in assessing the economic efficiency of aircraft application]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Journal of Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2018, vol. 10, iss. 99, pp. 814–817. (In Russ.)
Lomakin M.I., Strekha P.A. [Comparative analysis of models for forecasting investment attractiveness of research and development activities in the modern stage of development]. Transportnoe delo Rossii = Transport Business in Russia, 2013, no. 5, pp. 259–263. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Minasyan V.B. [Risk Assessment Models of the Companies Implementing R&D Projects]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika = Finance: Theory and Practice, 2019, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 133–146. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Markish J., Willcox K. Value-Based Multidisciplinary Techniques for Commercial Aircraft System Design. AIAA Journal, 2003, vol. 41, iss. 10, pp. 2004–2012. URL: Link
Gorelov B.A., Gyazova M.M. [The formation of the cost model in the early stages of the life cycle of aircraft]. Rossiiskii ekonomicheskii internet-zhurnal, 2019, no. 4. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Mal'tsev A.S. [Econometric modeling of cost per flying hour of civil helicopters]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2021, vol. 20, iss. 11, pp. 2168–2186. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Vilenskii P.L., Livshchits V.N., Smolyak S.A. Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov [Evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects]. Moscow, Delo Publ., 2001, 832 p.
Altman E. Measuring corporate bond mortality and performance. The Journal of Finance, 1989, vol. 44, iss. 4, pp. 909–922. URL: Link
Rodriguez R. Default risk, yield spreads, and time to maturity. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1988, vol. 23, iss. 1, pp. 111–117. URL: Link
Eskew H.L. Aircraft Cost Growth and Development Program Length: Some Augustinian Propositions Revisited. Acquisition Review, 2000, no. 32, pp. 209–220. URL: Link
Jia Ling Tong, Ji Lian Guo, An Wei Shen. The Effects of Advanced Materials on Aircraft Production Cost. Advanced Materials Research, 2013, no. 710, pp. 798–803. URL: Link
Gueraiche D., Popov S.A. [Improving the fuel efficiency of a transport aircraft by minimizing the weight of its non-planar lifting surface]. Trudy MAI, 2018, no. 100. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Tishchenko M.N., Nekrasov A.V., Radin A.S. Vybor parametrov pri proektirovanii [The choice of parameters in the design]. Moscow, Mashinostroenie Publ., 1976, 366 p.
Samuelson P.A. Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1964, vol. 46, iss. 2, pp. 145–154. URL: Link
Rogoff K. The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle. Revue of Economic Literature, 1996, vol. 34, iss. 2, pp. 647–668. URL: Link
Froot K.A., Thaler R.H. Anomalies: Foreign Exchange. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1990, vol. 4, iss. 3, pp. 179–192. URL: Link
Gurevich E., Sokolov V., Ulyukaev A. [The Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect on the Real Ruble Exchange Rate: The Assessment]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2008, no. 7, pp. 12–30. (In Russ.) URL: Link
