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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

A municipal formation's demographic development forecast using the methods of economic and mathematical modeling

Vol. 21, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2022

Received: 20 November 2018

Received in revised form: 14 December 2018

Accepted: 28 December 2018

Available online: 30 August 2022


JEL Classification: С6, J11

Pages: 1562–1582


Vladimir V. ORESHNIKOV Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation


Marsel' M. NIZAMUTDINOV Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation


Subject. This article discusses the issues of cyclical changes in population movement and the problem of population decline in the trends of demographic development of Ufa city.
Objectives. The article aims to assess the current situation and future parameters of the demographic development of Ufa.
Methods. For the study, we used the structural analysis, trend analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, in particular econometric methods, and the technique of ageing.
Results. The article presents the results of analysis of the current demographic situation of the Republic of Bashkortostan and predicted values of its change according to various development scenarios.
Conclusions. Changing the age structure of the population is an objective factor influencing all aspects of society's life. Any decision made to mitigate the risk and threats involved should be a comprehensive one.

Keywords: population, forecast, fertility, migration, economic-mathematical model


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