Subject. Effective development of regions in the innovation sphere is impossible without a detailed analysis of the current state, identification of interrelations between various factors, and assessment of problem areas. Mathematical modeling in relation to the specifics of regional economy is insufficiently studied from a theoretical point of view and requires further improvement. The article addresses innovative processes and phenomena in the economy of regions. Objectives. The purpose is to develop tools to forecast the level of innovation-driven growth of the economy of regions of the Russian Federation. The goal is achieved through methods for constructing models to assess the level of innovation in regions and forecast their development. Methods. The study employs general scientific methods of the systems theory, deduction, induction, abstraction, formalization, as well as special methods of regression analysis of time series, and asynchronous harmonic analysis. Results. I developed scientific and methodological tools for assessing the level of innovative development. For practical implementation, I used algorithms for constructing models with lag variables, building an asynchronous harmonic forecast, and factor analysis. Conclusions. The developed tools can be used as a theoretical basis to support managerial decision-making in the field of strategic management of the regional economy.
Keywords: innovative development, mathematical modeling, evaluation of innovation development
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