+7 925 966 4690, 9am6pm (GMT+3), Monday – Friday
ИД «Финансы и кредит»






Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

Forecasting changes in consumer behavior in conditions of economic crisis

Vol. 21, Iss. 5, MAY 2022

Received: 28 April 2022

Received in revised form: 7 May 2022

Accepted: 12 May 2022

Available online: 30 May 2022


JEL Classification: E21, E27

Pages: 911–926


Svetlana V. RATNER V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation


Artem M. SHAPOSHNIKOV Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow Russian Federation


Subject. The article addresses the issue of forecasting changes in consumer behavior patterns in the medium and long term.
Objectives. The focus is on consumer behavior prediction to identify potential growth points for small and medium-sized businesses in the field of trade and services.
Methods. The methodological basis of the study is behavioral economics. The information base draws on analytical reports of Cerulli Associates, Profi Online Research, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Euromonitor International, and Ipsos research company, which developed and uses in its analysis a calculation methodology for the Global Consumer Confidence Index.
Results. We analyzed the main trends of consumer behavior in 2022 in Russia in the context of tougher sanctions, global supply disruptions, and other crisis phenomena, from the perspective of existing knowledge about sustainable forms of Russian consumers’ reaction to crisis events in the economy. The paper highlights a decrease in loyalty to brands, expansion of online commerce to people over the age of 60, reduced demand for eco-products, and enhanced financial literacy, which is accompanied by an increase in demands for a fair price-quality ratio, as the key changes in consumer behavior that determine opportunities for businesses.
Conclusions. Crises seriously affect the time frames of consumer planning. During the crisis, the time frames are reduced and blurred, and now consumers proceed from even greater uncertainty.

Keywords: irrational behavior, behavioral economics, consumer behavior, rational behavior, economic sanction


  1. Voronina L.A., Shaposhnikov A.M. [Scientific approaches and genesis of the methodology of behavioral economics]. Ekonomika: teoriya i praktika = Economics: Theory and Practice, 2019, no. 3, pp. 3–11. (In Russ.)
  2. Malmendier U.M. Experience Effects in Finance: Foundations, Applications, and Future Directions. CEPR Discussion Paper, 2021, no. 16373. URL: Link
  3. Malmendier U., Nagel S. Learning from Inflation Experiences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016, vol. 131, iss. 1, pp. 53–87. URL: Link
  4. Antonova N.V., Kumar A., Soloreva M.A. [The perception of Russian and foreign clothing brands by Russian consumers]. Institut psikhologii Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Sotsial'naya i ekonomicheskaya psikhologiya, 2016, vol. 1, no. 3. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  5. Dubovik M.V., Shaposhnikov A.M. [The impact of COVID-19 pandemic quarantine on consumer behavior in Russia]. Drukerovskij vestnik, 2021, iss. 3, pp. 146–166. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  6. Shaposhnikov A.M. [Consumer perception of coronavirus vaccination]. Ekonomicheskii vestnik IPU RAN, 2021, vol. 2, no. 3. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  7. Matkovskaya Ya.S. [Under the influence of the ‘coronacrisis’: Some changes in the landscape of the market, marketing architecture, and actualize of the ‘intelligent marketing’]. Ekonomicheskii vestnik IPU RAN, 2021, vol. 2, no. 2. (In Russ.) URL: Link
  8. Milton F. A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton University Press, 1957.

View all articles of issue


ISSN 2311-8725 (Online)
ISSN 2073-039X (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 21, Iss. 6
June 2022