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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

Improving the methodology to measure the shadow economy, considering the impact of the coronavirus pandemic

Vol. 21, Iss. 4, APRIL 2022

Received: 7 March 2022

Received in revised form: 19 March 2022

Accepted: 29 March 2022

Available online: 28 April 2022


JEL Classification: E26

Pages: 598–615


Dinara R. ORLOVA Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation


Subject. The article discusses approaches and methods to measure the shadow economy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.
Objectives. The purpose of the study is to perform a comprehensive analysis of the problem of measuring the shadow economy in the face of the COVID?19 pandemic, to add new terms and definitions to the framework of categories and concepts of model studies, based on changed socio-economic conditions.
Methods. The study rests on methods of logical analysis and the model approach.
Results. The paper reveals specific aspects of measuring the shadow economy in conditions of the pandemic, introduces the concept of false indicators of the shadow economy, underpins the economic substance of false indicators of the Russian shadow economy.
Conclusions. The pandemic has a dual (suppressive-and-stimulating) effect on shadow activities. A number of factors intensify the shadow economy expansion, however, the consequences of the pandemic (social isolation, wider use of digital technologies, including the contactless economy and systems for non-cash payments) lead to a decrease in shadow manifestations in the economy. Further research in this area, based on additions to the measurement methodology, proposed in this paper, can show whether the pandemic will result in the reduction of the shadow economy or only in the modification of its manifestations.

Keywords: coronavirus pandemic, shadow economy, MIMIC method


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Vol. 21, Iss. 4
April 2022