Methodological provisions for assessing scientific and technical risk and financial losses during development works to create complex technical systems
Nikolai V. FIROV4th Central Research Institute of Ministry of Defence of Russian Federation, Korolev, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation nfirov@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Sergei A. SOROKIN4th Central Research Institute of Ministry of Defence of Russian Federation, Korolev, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation four-cniimorf@yandex.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. The article addresses scientific and technical risk and financial losses of the customer in the process of research and development works on the creation of complex technical systems. Objectives. The study aims at constructing and analyzing the dependence of scientific and technical risk and financial losses of the customer on the planned volume of development works and the financial resources invested in them. Methods. We apply methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics, system and regression analysis, risk assessment and management. The paper rests on data on completed development projects for complex technical systems creation. Results. We formulated methodological provisions for assessing scientific and technical risk, arising in the process of development works on complex technical systems. The paper presents an algorithm for calculating the expected financial losses from works implementation. The problem of minimizing financial losses associated with scientific and technical risk is formulated and formalized. The feasibility of proposed provisions and recommendations is confirmed by a practical example. Conclusions. To assess risks, it is important to consider the impact of the degree of difference between the main characteristics of developed product and its prototype on the required amount of works at development stage. This enables to build regression dependencies of the volume of works at the development stage on a specified factor, which are later used to assess the scientific and technical risk and associated financial losses.
Keywords: research and development, scientific and technical risk, degree of novelty, confidence probability
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