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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

Analyzing the dynamics of indicators of the Russian economy

Vol. 20, Iss. 4, APRIL 2021

Received: 14 January 2021

Received in revised form: 28 January 2021

Accepted: 13 February 2021

Available online: 29 April 2021


JEL Classification: E20, 29, 44, 60, 69

Pages: 753771


Valerii V. SMIRNOV I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation


Subject. The article addresses the dynamics of the Russian economy indicators.
Objectives. The aim is to identify sources and opportunities for the Russian economy growth.
Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis.
Results. The analysis of the currency, stock, and commodity market unveils the impulse effect on the MOEX index through the devaluation of the national currency and the issue of Russian Government Bonds. The analysis of the importance of GDP deflator by industry identifies the priority of economic activity public administration and military security; social security, which suppresses the economic activity household activities as employers; undifferentiated activities of households to produce goods and provide services for their own consumption. The structural integrity of economic activities is maintained through taxes on products. The dynamics of the share of GDP deflator growth and the index of output of goods and services revealed a low level of purchasing power and a rise in food inflation, as well as a significant upturn in inflation in the manufacturing sector after Q1 2020, which was caused by the increase in the cost of production and unit sales.
Conclusions. The analyzed trends in the Russian economy indicators show a qualitative source of growth of the Russian economy, i.e. people as an alternative oil. This enables to move away from commodity dependence (RTSI) and actively use wide opportunities of growth (IMOEX).

Keywords: dynamics, index, inflation, resource economy, management


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