Subject. We consider the impact of export diversification on economic growth rates. Objectives. The study aims to develop a forecast for export diversification for the BRICS countries. Methods. The research rests on the product space conceptual platform. The International Trade Data (HS, 92) serve as the information resource of the study. Results. We developed a multiple regression model for export diversification of BRICS countries. The evaluation metrics for control samples of models are presented with a fairly strong functional link of factorial features, which confirms a high level of relevance of chosen predictors. The paper underpins the anticipated behavior of export diversification in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Conclusions. Only China and India have an upward trend in the projected values of the analyzed indicator. However, in the model for India, this trend can not be called stable, as it contains numerous fluctuations with rather serious amplitude. The trend for China, by contrast, shows a strictly monotonic trajectory of growth. A similar trend for South Africa demonstrates a stagnation at the level of 25 points. The projected behavior of export diversification in Russia and Brazil has comparable features and is characterized by a certain decline with short periods of fluctuations.
Keywords: export, product space, diversification, multiple linear regression, ARIMA
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