Estimating the efficiency of nuclear power plant construction projects considering the impact |of information risks and risks of deviation of actual electric power generation from designed
Koptelov M.V.Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russian Federation omoteo@yandex.ru ORCID id: not available
Mel'nikov R.M.Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russian Federation rmmel@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject The article investigates the impact of information security risks and risks of deviation of actual electric power production from designed on the efficiency of NPP projects. Objectives The aim is to develop methodological approaches to assessing the efficiency and risks of nuclear power plant construction projects, and their practical testing. Methods We employ the naive Bayes classifier method to assess the information security risk. To assess the risk of a decrease in electric power production in relation to the designed level, we use the regression analysis of dependence of relative deviation of actual electric power production from designed on the operating time of PWR-1000 reactors based on the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System database. Results The study reveals a systematic negative deviation of the actual volume of electric power production at NPP with PWR-1000 reactors from the designed level. We show that the probable size of this deviation decreases as the lifetime of energy block increases; offer a model to forecast nuclear power production given potential consequences of the risk of incomplete electricity generation; underpin the need for considering the information security risk, as it may have an adverse impact on the schedule and costs of works at the investment phase under unfavorable public views of environmental footprint. Conclusions When estimating the targets of new NPP projects, it is necessary to consider the risk of incomplete electric power production due to technological failure, quantify and monitor the information security risk associated with the negative perception of project’s ecological implications by the media.
Keywords: investment efficiency, nuclear power plant construction, information security risk, electric power production, naive Bayes classifier
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