Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

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Enhancing the reliability of SWOT analysis results based on methods of the expert systems theory

Vol. 18, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2019

Received: 13 August 2019

Received in revised form: 13 September 2019

Accepted: 11 November 2019

Available online: 25 December 2019

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: C01, C38, G32, G41

Pages: 2322–2338

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.18.12.2322

Bukharin S.V. Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies (VSUET), Voronezh, Russian Federation
svbuharin@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2997-3634

Subject The article addresses the SWOT analysis technique, reviews its pros and cons, and its methodology refinement.
Objectives The study aims to improve the reliability of SWOT analysis, using the expert systems theory methods.
Methods I employ methods of financial analysis, strategic management, theory of expert systems, analysis of hierarchies, rank statistics, and correlation analysis.
Results Based on the expert systems theory, I developed a simplified methodology for expert group selection. It rests on identification and elimination of inconsistency of expert evaluations through correlation analysis. I present an overall indicator for all four groups of factors of SWOT analysis in the form of a rating number; the weight coefficients of the rating number are determined through the analysis of hierarchies. The study uses the case of a bakery in Voronezh, and offers various options of strategy for its financial and economic activity improvement.
Conclusions The offered methodology for enhancing the reliability of SWOT analysis results enables to compare various enterprises on the basis of an integrated indicator of quality.

Keywords: SWOT analysis, expert systems, rating number, correlation

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