Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice

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The concept of Grand Challenges in the forecasting system for science, technology and innovation development

Vol. 18, Iss. 7, JULY 2019

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Received: 29 May 2019

Received in revised form: 13 June 2019

Accepted: 24 June 2019

Available online: 30 July 2019


JEL Classification: E27, F01

Pages: 1196–1212

Karasev O.I. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation

Mukanina E.I. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation

Trost'yanskii S.S. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation

Beloshitskii A.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation

Subject Modern approaches to macro-economic forecasting rest on the need to understand the so-called grand challenges, i.e. threats and new opportunities that can significantly change the global social and economic landscape. The planetary scale of the challenges calls for the international community to apply new approaches to effectively deal with any emerging issues and capture new opportunities.
Objectives We systematize existing approaches to highlighting the key challenges, define scenarios of world development in line with global trends.
Methods The study employs methods of analysis and modeling.
Results We give a definition of basic notions used in the theory and practice of strategic forecasting based on the Grand Challenges concept, a comprehensive description of the concept, considering the practical experience of developed countries. We also present a classification of existing challenges that affect all aspects of human development. The paper includes a semantic model of concepts applied in the forecasting practice on the basis of the Grand Challenges concept, and highlights key challenges for the global community.
Conclusions The discussed challenges are significant. They cover every facet of our society. Their study and description enable to get an insight into existing and potential direction of changes in various activities, sectors of economy, companies.

Keywords: Grand Challenge, foresight, economic policy, semantic model


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