Leonov A.V.46th Central Research Institute of RF Ministry of Defense, Moscow, Russian Federation alex.clein51@yandex.ru ORCID id: not available
Pronin A.Yu.46th Central Research Institute of RF Ministry of Defense, Moscow, Russian Federation pronin46@bk.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject The article addresses planning the cost of high-tech products manufacturing as an important task of government technological programs justification. Severe budget restrictions necessitate improving the existing theoretical approaches, methods and techniques for cost planning, and searching for new ones. Objectives We focus on designing a method for planning the costs of high-tech product manufacturing based on the use of the hysteresis physical phenomenon, mechanisms of its occurrence, and the resulting effects. Methods The basic premises of the methodology include the mechanism of synergistic effects emergence, which we established through generalization and analysis of various scientific formulations of the hysteresis phenomenon, its causes and consequences; the concept of synergistic hysteresis, which is defined for the first time. Results We present a two-tier method; its main specifics is determination of upper and lower levels of costs for high-tech products manufacturing. The paper also offers tools to estimate the upper and lower level of costs and the synergistic effect, based on their comparison. When estimating the lower level of costs, we consider the risk of budgetary allocation deficit, which is addressed for the first time in such estimations, and is characterized by the duration of the deficit. Conclusions The findings may be useful for perfecting the methodological tools for long-term high-tech programs development, mitigating their implementation risk, identifying ways of sustainable innovation and technological development of the country to serve national defense and security.
Keywords: high-tech product, method, cost, self-organization, technological program
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