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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Modeling and scenario forecasting of territorial system development at the municipal level: Methodological and practical considerations

Vol. 16, Iss. 7, JULY 2017

Received: 15 February 2017

Received in revised form: 23 May 2017

Accepted: 9 June 2017

Available online: 27 July 2017

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT

JEL Classification: R58

Pages: 1204–1216

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.16.7.1204

Nizamutdinov M.M. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation
marsel_n@mail.ru

Oreshnikov V.V. Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation
voresh@mail.ru

Subject The article considers forecast generation of municipality's socio-economic development on the case of Oktyabrsky town, Republic of Bashkortostan.
Objectives The aim of the research is to underpin key parameters of medium-term and long-term forecasts of town development as a complex system operating in unstable macroeconomic environment.
Methods The forecast generation relies on complexity and consistency requirements that can be realized through the use of economic and mathematical methods and models. The developed models enable to quantitatively rationalize basic parameters of social and economic development and assess the implications of measures taken at the State and municipal level and the influence of environmental factors. To take into account uncertainty and probabilistic nature of changes in the parameters of the economic system as well as other related risks, we consider three scenarios of socio-economic development of Oktyabrsky.
Results The study shows that socio-economic development of municipalities depends largely on external factors. According to model calculations, Oktyabrsky has a solid base for future development. However, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and internal risks associated with the development may cause economic stagnation. The baseline scenario seems the most probable in the current circumstances, and differences between the scenarios to a greater extent appear in the longer term.
Conclusions and Relevance Further development and application of economic and mathematical modeling in forecasting and planning at the municipal level may not only improve the forecast accuracy but also ensure efficient State and municipal management.

Keywords: forecasting, modeling, scenario, development, town

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