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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Medium and long-term perspectives and priorities of sustainable development of the service sector in Uzbekistan

Vol. 16, Iss. 3, MARCH 2017

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 29 August 2016

Received in revised form: 18 January 2017

Accepted: 6 February 2017

Available online: 29 March 2017

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: C82, E01, E61, O1

Pages: 582-600

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.16.3.582

Ibragimova N.M. Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research under Cabinet of Ministers of Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Nelibragimova@gmail.com

Importance The need for further development of the service sector in Uzbekistan necessitates forecasting the development parameters of this sector and its branches aligned to the national programs, dynamics of final demand on the part of the government and parameters of investment programs, and sustainable growth in household incomes.
Objectives The aim of the study is to consider approaches using the aggregate Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and long-term sustainable development forecasts of the service sector.
Methods I use the aggregate Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). On its basis I combine ‘input-output’ tables and accounts of two additional institutional sectors (household and government accounts).
Results The assessment of interrelations between changes in the structure of intermediate and final demand and economic growth showed that government development programs make major contribution to the growth of market services. The analysis of the elements of household income growth by factors demonstrates that in the medium term the development of services will support the increase in household incomes.
Conclusions and Relevance Market services in the medium term will continue to grow mainly due to the growth of traditional services (trade and transport), ICT and communication services, in the longer term, financial and socially important services will provide a stronger impact. Sustainability of the services sector provides for positive social implication from the market services development, however, an additional social protection is needed for the growth of incomes of disadvantaged citizens.

Keywords: service sector, tertiary industry, macroeconomic factors, SAM, intermediate and final demand

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