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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Forecasting the indicators of integrated development of animal industry within the regional agro-industrial complex

Vol. 16, Iss. 3, MARCH 2017

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 19 April 2016

Received in revised form: 6 December 2016

Accepted: 17 January 2017

Available online: 29 March 2017

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT

JEL Classification: R15

Pages: 413-427

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.16.3.413

Gerasimov A.N. Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russian Federation
gerasimov_77_77@mail.ru

Gromov E.I. Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russian Federation
gromei@mail.ru

Barsukov M.G. Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russian Federation
maksim_bender08@mail.ru

Importance The article addresses the objective to increase the production of domestic goods, which plays a significant role in solving the problem of import substitution and food security.
Objectives The aim of the study is to predict indicators of integrated development of livestock breeding in the system of regional agribusiness to make efficient managerial decisions within the regional management system.
Methods We employed fundamental and applied studies of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of spatial economy and economic analysis, and issue-related publications in periodicals. To predict the indicators of integrated livestock industry development in the Stavropol Krai, we used methods of adaptive extrapolation, taking into account alternative forecast scenarios depending on the condition of external environment.
Results We propose an algorithm of forecasting the basic parameters of regional agro-industrial complex functioning. Its specifics is a combination of expert and formal approaches.
Conclusions and Relevance The results of adaptive prediction of livestock sector development in the region should be regarded as an essential tool of evidence-based plans for probabilistic organizational and administrative, industrial, economic, and social development of business entities to make and implement efficient management decisions.

Keywords: State program, development, meat production output, sales volumes, price forecast, livestock farming

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