Home  Journals  Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice  12(459) - 2016 December

Modeling the influence of structural changes in mutual trade on the development of economic potential of the Russian Federation

Vol. 15, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2016

Article PDF Version

Received: 27 September 2016

Received in revised form: 11 October 2016

Accepted: 28 October 2016

Available online: 26 December 2016

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT

JEL Classification: F02, P33

Pages: 4-13

Importance The article deals with statistical modeling of the impact of trade flow structure on the status and development of economic potential of the Russian Federation in the context of mutual trade of Eurasian Economic Union member countries.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to reveal the degree of influence of changes in the main areas of mutual trade of the EAEU countries on changes in the proposed indicators of the country's economic potential.
Methods We apply general scientific methods of research, like dialectical, monographic methods, logical analysis, comparison, and correlation-and-regression analysis.
Results We reviewed the relevant works by Russian and foreign scientists, and propose our own system of indicators of economic potential of the Russian Federation considering the hypothetical impact of the mutual trade. The paper includes a methodology for modeling the influence of structural changes in the mutual trade on the development of Russia's economic potential, and a relevant analysis. Calculations help us suggest various hypotheses about the development of economic potential of the country (and its individual indicators), depending on changes in the structure of mutual and foreign trade of the Russian Federation, built econometric models and interpret the results.
Conclusions The findings show that the mutual trade of the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Kazakhstan exerts the biggest influence on customs payments of the Russian Federation, being one of indicators of economic potential.

Keywords: customs statistics, economic potential, mutual trade, Eurasian Economic Union, EAEU

References:

1. Alpysbaeva S.N., Kenzhebulat M.K., Kamzin A.A., Kaskeev S.E. [Structural changes in the mutual trade of Kazakhstan and Russia under external shocks and differences in the monetary policy]. Evraziiskaya Ekonomicheskaya Integratsiya = Journal of Eurasian Economic Integration, 2015, no. 2, pp. 41–51. (In Russ.)
2. Bludova S.N. [Flows of mutual trade within the Customs Union]. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik = Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2014, no. 6, pp. 81–86. (In Russ.)
3. Pelipas' I.V., Tochitskaya I.E., Shimanovich G.I., Anisimov A.M.  [Assessing the impact of non-tariff barriers on mutual trade in the common economic space based on a survey of exporting enterprises]. Evraziiskaya Ekonomicheskaya Integratsiya = Journal of Eurasian Economic Integration, 2014, no. 4, pp. 5–30. (In Russ.)
4. Lyubushin N.P., Bogatyreva L.V. [Nature, strategies, approaches, and methods of crisis management of organization]. Materialy II Mezhdunarodnoi zaochnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii Aktual'nye problemy ucheta, ekonomicheskogo analiza i finansovo-khozyaistvennogo kontrolya deyatel'nosti organizatsii [Proc. 2nd Int. Sci. Conf. Topical Issues of Accounting, Economic Analysis and Financial and Economic Control over Organizations' Operations]. Voronezh, 2015, pp. 118–120.
5. Matveeva O.P. [Developing the mutual trade in goods of the Customs Union member countries as a factor of an increase in the national economies competitiveness]. Vestnik Belgorodskogo universiteta kooperatsii, ekonomiki i prava = Herald of the Belgorod University of Cooperation, Economics and Law, 2014, no. 3, pp. 235–244. (In Russ.)
6. Michalopoulos С., Tarr D. The Economics of Customs Unions in the Commonwealth of Independent States. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 1997, no. WPS1786.
7. Bagwell K., Staiger R.W. Multilateral Tariff Cooperation during the Formation of Customs Unions. Journal of International Economics, 1997, vol. 42, pp. 91–123.
8. Harrison G.W., Rutherford T.F., Tarr D.G. Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union. European Economic Review, 1997, vol. 41, iss. 3-5, pp. 861–870. doi: 10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00043-3
9. Collier P. Commodity Aggregation in Customs Unions. Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, 1985, vol. 37, no. 4, pp. 677–682.
10. Deckers W. China, Globalisation and the World Trade Organization. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 2004, vol. 34, iss. 1, pp. 102–119.
11. Petersmann E.-U. The Transformation of the World Trading System Through the 1994 Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization. European Journal of International Law, 1995, vol. 6, pp. 161–222.
12. Ruggiero R. The World Trade Organization: Three Priorities. World Trade Review, 2005, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 355–357.
13. Pauwelyn J. How to Win a World Trade Organization Dispute Based on Non-World Trade Organization Law? Journal of World Trade, 2003, vol. 37, no. 6, pp. 997–1030.
14. Togan S. Effects of a Turkey-European Union Customs Union and Prospects for the Future. Russian & East European Finance & Trade, 2000, vol. 36, iss. 4, pp. 5–25.
15. Shiue C.H. From Political Fragmentation Towards a Customs Union: Border Effects of the German Zollverein, 1815 to 1855. European Review of Economic History, 2005, vol. 9(2), pp. 129–162. doi: 10.1017/S1361491605001437

View all articles of issue

ISSN 2311-8725 (Online)
ISSN 2073-039X (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 23, Iss. 3 March 2024

Archive