Importance The article deals with statistical modeling of the impact of trade flow structure on the status and development of economic potential of the Russian Federation in the context of mutual trade of Eurasian Economic Union member countries. Objectives The purpose of the study is to reveal the degree of influence of changes in the main areas of mutual trade of the EAEU countries on changes in the proposed indicators of the country's economic potential. Methods We apply general scientific methods of research, like dialectical, monographic methods, logical analysis, comparison, and correlation-and-regression analysis. Results We reviewed the relevant works by Russian and foreign scientists, and propose our own system of indicators of economic potential of the Russian Federation considering the hypothetical impact of the mutual trade. The paper includes a methodology for modeling the influence of structural changes in the mutual trade on the development of Russia's economic potential, and a relevant analysis. Calculations help us suggest various hypotheses about the development of economic potential of the country (and its individual indicators), depending on changes in the structure of mutual and foreign trade of the Russian Federation, built econometric models and interpret the results. Conclusions The findings show that the mutual trade of the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Kazakhstan exerts the biggest influence on customs payments of the Russian Federation, being one of indicators of economic potential.
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