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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

The impact of capital investment, number of people employed in the economy and hydrocarbon extraction on sustainable development of industrial production in Russia

Vol. 15, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 9 September 2016

Received in revised form: 23 September 2016

Accepted: 11 October 2016

Available online: 29 November 2016

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT

JEL Classification: C22, C51, E27, O11

Pages: 4-19

Lyubushin N.P. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation
lubushinnp@mail.ru

Babicheva N.E. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation
sigaeva@mail.ru

Kozinova A.T. National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
antonina.kozinova@gmail.com

Kupryushina O.M. Voronezh State University, Voronezh, Russian Federation
olgakupryushina@umc.vsu.ru

Subject The article addresses econometric analysis of relationship of macroeconomic indicators defining the sustainable development of industrial production in Russia, i.e. industrial production index, capital investment, number of people employed in the economy, coal mining, oil and gas production.
Objectives The purpose of the work is to create models of analytical quantification of industrial production index of Russia, taking into account periods of economic turbulence.
Methods We apply correlation and regression methods to analyze statistical data from 2003 through 2015. Dummy indicators are included in the models for quantification of abnormal changes in Russia's industrial production index during periods of economic instability.
Results The quantitative analysis suggests that the elasticity of industrial output is very small (less than 0.1) for capital investment, testifying to low efficiency of investment process; it is higher for oil production as compared with coal and gas, and is indicative of greater dependence of the Russian economy on oil; and it is significantly higher for the number of people employed in the economy as compared with other macroeconomic indicators, and this implies that the physical infrastructure of the country is obsolete.
Conclusions and Relevance The use of dummy indicators in the models enabled to neutralize the impact of periods of economic volatility on the model quality; to evaluate abnormal changes in industrial production index of Russia during crises that are not related to macroeconomic indicators included in the regression function; to predict changes in the industrial production of Russia depending on capital investment, number of people employed and production of hydrocarbons.

Keywords: economic volatility, industrial production index, econometric analysis, model

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