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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

A simulation fuzzy model for building an optimal portfolio of linked pair of contracts for natural uranium and uranium enrichment services by the NPP operator

Vol. 15, Iss. 10, OCTOBER 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 5 April 2016

Received in revised form: 24 May 2016

Accepted: 2 June 2016

Available online: 1 November 2016

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: C63, C65, D44, L94

Pages: 140-154

Rostovskii N.S. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation
rosnik@list.ru

Smirnov D.S. National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation
dvonrims@yandex.ru

Importance The article presents a simulation model to build a portfolio of linked long-term contracts for natural uranium and uranium enrichment services by the NPP operator based on multi-criteria estimation of these contracts by expert estimates and economic factors, using hierarchical fuzzy-logic systems.
Objectives Our purpose is to create a mathematical model for computer simulation of contracting processes in the uranium products markets under uncertainty and variability of a number of market indicators.
Methods The paper employs general principles for creating multi-agent simulation models and hierarchical fuzzy inference systems of Mamdani type.
Results We created hierarchical fuzzy models to describe the process of determining the offer price for natural uranium and the price of uranium enrichment services. We also created a hierarchical fuzzy model of rating these offers by nuclear power plant operators and selecting the best pairs of linked contracts for a number of different market situations. The paper presents an algorithm for determining the price parameters of deals that simulates a contracting process by using hierarchical fuzzy models based on expert estimates and economic factors, and gives examples how the model works for operating companies.
Conclusions The paper provides tools to estimate contracts for natural uranium and enrichment services, taking into account possible changes in expert estimates and economic factors. The main features of the model can be applied to other economic sectors involving similar schemes of interaction between companies of related sectors.

Keywords: simulation modeling, uranium markets, fuzzy logic, hierarchical fuzzy systems

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