Importance The article addresses verification of the risk of financial insolvency of organizations. The relevance of the research is in monitoring the existing methodologies for identifying the bankruptcy risk and building the unique logit-dependence based on factors of known financial logit-models. Objectives Our aim is to create a probabilistic model of bankruptcy risk assessment of organizations, which takes into account the combined effect of the key financial indicators of organizations. As indicators for the models we suggest to take those used in financial models, which are characterized by high confidence level of final results. Methods The study employs quantitative methods of statistical processing of data, empirical and experimental-theoretical mathematical research methods, using the methods of factor, correlation, and regression analysis. For statistical data processing we use Excel, SPSS, Statistica packages of applied programs. Results We developed a methodology to assess the financial status of organizations with a possibility to choose reliable business partners. The technique has been successfully tested in many organizations and is an effective tool to ensure the transparency and security of business. The information system of CIT Deltainkom that is developed on the basis of the proposed methodology, is demanded by a significant number of users. Conclusions and Relevance We created a unique logit-model to check organizations for bankruptcy with interpretation by the adapted Moody's rating scale.
Keywords: bankruptcy, probability, logit-model, business partner, security
References:
Zakharchenko V.I., Merkulov N.N., Khalikyan N.V. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' biznesa [Economic security of business]. Odessa, AO BAKhVA Publ., 2009, 176 p.
Velmurugan M.S. Security and Trust in E-business: Problems and Prospects. International Journal of Electronic Business Management, 2009, vol. 7, iss. 3, pp. 151–158.
Yakimov I.M., Mokshin V.V. Komp'yuternye tekhnologii modelirovaniya i obrabotki eksperimental'nykh dannykh [Computer technology for simulation and processing the experimental data]. Kazan, KSTU Publ., 2012, 124 p.
Kolesnikov N. [Scoring: abstract and concrete]. Bankovskie tekhnologii = Banking Technologies, 2004, no. 12, pp. 32–34. (In Russ.)
Snegova E.G., Mastyaeva I.N. [Risk management of internal and external fraud in express lending]. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya = Fundamental Research, 2013, no. 6, pp. 1224–1228. (In Russ.)
Bordeianu G.D. et al. Analysis Models of the Bankruptcy Risk. Economy Transdisciplinarity Cognition, 2011, vol. XIV, iss. 1, pp. 248–259.
Mandru L. et al. The Diagnosis of Bankruptcy Risk Using Score Function. Proceeding of WSEAS International Conference Recent Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Knowledge, Engineering and Data Base. Cambridge, 2010. Available at: Link.
Aleksandrova M.V., Proskurina Z.B. [Specifics of applying various techniques to prevent bankruptcy of domestic enterprises]. Ekonomika, sotsiologiya i pravo = Economics, Sociology and Law, 2014, no. 3, pp. 12–14. (In Russ.)
Zhdanov V.Yu., Rygin V.E. [Theoretical analysis of concepts of insolvency and bankruptcy of enterprise]. Regionologiya = Regionology, 2013, no. 4, pp. 164–171. (In Russ.)
Rygin V.E. [Bankruptcy risk assessment tools for metallurgical enterprises]. Nauchnye trudy Vol'nogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii = Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia, 2013, vol. 179, pp. 522–527. (In Russ.)
Rygin V.E. [Bankruptcy risk assessment model of metallurgical enterprises]. Vestnik Yuzhno-Rossiiskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta (Novocherkasskogo politekhnicheskogo instituta). Ser.: Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie nauki = Bulletin of South-Russian State Technical University (Novocherkassk Polytechnic Institute). Series: Socio-economic Sciences, 2013, no. 5, pp. 84–91. (In Russ.)
Altman E.I. Bankruptcy, Credit Risk, and High Yield Junk Bonds. Wiley-Blackwell, 2002.
Khaidarshina G.A. [An integrated model of bankruptcy risk assessment]. Finansy = Finance, 2009, no. 2, pp. 67–69. (In Russ.)
Zhdanov V.Yu. [Bankruptcy risk assessment in the three-dimensional space]. Upravlenie ekonomicheskimi sistemami, 2011, no. 32. (In Russ.) Available at: Link.
Zhdanov V.Yu. Mekhanizm diagnostiki riska bankrotstva promyshlennogo predpriyatiya. V kn.: Aktual'nye voprosy ekonomiki i upravleniya. T. 2 [The mechanism of bankruptcy risk assessment of an industrial enterprise. In: Topical issues of economics and management. Vol. 2]. Moscow, RIOR Publ., 2011, pp. 95–97.
Skiba S.A., Loiko V.I. [The modern approach to assessing the customer's financial solvency in lending]. Scientific Journal of KubSAU, 2012, no. 81. (In Russ.) Available at: Link.
Tang T.T. Information Asymmetry and Firms' Credit Market Access: Evidence from Moody's credit rating format refinement. Journal of Financial Economics, 2009, vol. 93, iss. 2, pp. 325–351. doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.07.007
Bernstein L.A. Analiz finansovoi otchetnosti: teoriya, praktika i interpretatsiya [Financial Statement Analysis: Theory, Practice and Interpretation]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika Publ., 1996, 623 p.
