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Evaluation of sanctions' impact on the cost of financing for Russian companies

Vol. 15, Iss. 10, OCTOBER 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 22 July 2016

Received in revised form: 12 August 2016

Accepted: 31 August 2016

Available online: 1 November 2016

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT

JEL Classification: E44, F34, F51, G15

Pages: 4-16

Omel'chenko A.N. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
alexey.omelchenko@mail.ru

Khrustalev E.Yu. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
stalev@cemi.rssi.ru

Importance Sanctions against Russia were introduced by the US and EU countries more than two years ago. The quantitative estimation of the impact of sanctions is quite important; it is a subject of a number of studies by Russian and foreign authors.
Objectives In the study, we make an attempt to assess the impact of sanctions on the cost of financing for Russian companies. The paper also overviews the latest research papers and summarizes the estimates of the effect of sanctions on GDP growth, capital outflow, inflation, rate of exchange.
Methods We employ a combination of methods and principles of scientific knowledge and research, techniques of logical and statistical analysis.
Results We review the dynamics of effective interest rates of Russian issuers' Eurobonds (an increase in the cost of external financing in Euro and USD is about 0.5–1 percent per annum) and the indirect effect of sanction on the cost of Russia’s sovereign debt. Based on the statistics of the Bank of Russia, we analyze the impact of sanctions on the weighted average interest rates of long-term financing (over one year maturity) for Russian companies.
Conclusions The paper unveils the implications of increased interest rates for Russian companies. In general, the sanctions had a short-term effect (12–13 months) on the cost of financing. Despite the fact that peak interest rates passed, the cost of short-term funding in 2015 exceeded the working capital margins in most sectors of the Russian economy (except oil and gas).

Keywords: sanctions, debt market, interest rates, lending, price

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