Komarevtseva O.O.Orel Branch of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Orel, Russian Federation komare_91@mail.ru
Importance The article considers short-term statistical forecasting of indicators of municipal development on the gross municipal product case. The research topic is extremely important due to constant changes in the economy of the country, region, municipalities caused by global crisis tendencies. Objectives The purpose of the study is to create a model of short-term forecasting based on the Brown adaptive model and the Holt-Winters trend model. Methods The study rests on the structural, logical, statistical, and economic analysis, and the graph method. Results I offer an effective tool for short-term forecasting. The efficiency of the Brown adaptive model to forecast the level of gross municipal product is 95% (as evidenced by the fulfillment of all requirements to the model adequacy). The Holt-Winters trend model allows to confirm or refute the results of the Brown model. The findings may be interesting for both regional and municipal authorities, and the scientific community, researchers involved in municipal entity community development. Conclusions and Relevance The findings will enable to make more accurate calculations of the level of gross municipal product on the basis of short-term forecasting, to test the Brown model by the Holt-Winters model, and to simulate economic systems of the municipality, considering future changes.
Keywords: municipality, municipal entity, economy, forecasting
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