Loktionov V.I.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation vadlok@mail.ru
Subject The article analyzes factors influencing the acceptable level of data quality. Objectives The aim of the study is to improve the validity of decision-making in the management of energy systems, and thereby improve the efficiency of the entire fuel and energy complex of the country. Methods The study employs the general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, as well as special methods of analyzing the operations of energy systems. Results The analysis of the management decision-making process in the energy sector and energy system modeling helped identify factors directly impacting the level of permissible error in the input data. They include time horizon, the energy system adaptability level, the level of economic efficiency of operations of the entire energy system and its individual components, and tasks to be solved. The paper shows that time horizon and the level of organization of the power system change not only the acceptable level of data quality, but also the initial factors that form and influence the energy system adaptability. Conclusions and Relevance The precision of input data has a positive impact of the results of the energy system development analysis.
Keywords: adaptability, analysis, management, system, energy complex
References:
Melent'ev L.A., Shteingauz E.O. Ekonomika energetiki SSSR [Economy of the power industry of the USSR]. Moscow, Gosudarstvennoe energeticheskoe izdatel'stvo Publ., 1963, 431 p.
Melent'ev L.A. Sistemnye issledovaniya v energetike. Elementy teorii, napravleniya razvitiya [System research in the energy sector. Elements of theory, development trends]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1979, 415 p.
Kononov Yu.D., Gal'perova E.V., Kononov D.Yu. Metody i modeli prognoznykh issledovanii vzaimosvyazei energetiki i ekonomiki [Methods and models of inferential research in the relationships of energy and economy]. Novosibirsk, Nauka Publ., 2009, 178 p.
Kibalov E.B., Kin A.A. [Problems of uncertainty in the evaluation of expected effectiveness of large-scale investment projects]. Region, 2007, no. 3, pp. 67–91. (In Russ.)
Kibalov E.B., Goryachenko V.I., Khutoretskii A.B. Sistemnyi analiz ozhidaemoi effektivnosti krupnomasshtabnykh proektov [Systems analysis of expected effectiveness of large-scale projects]. Novosibirsk, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences Publ., 2008, 164 p.
Loktionov V.I., Kononov Yu.D. Otsenka riskov v predprinimatel'stve pri analize effektivnosti krupnomasshtabnykh proektov v TEK [Risk assessment in business when analyzing the effectiveness of large-scale projects in the energy sector]. Irkutsk, Baikal State University of Economics and Law Publ., 2012, 143 p.
Mednitskii V.G., Fattakhov R.V., Bushanskii S.P. Krupnomasshtabnye investitsionnye proekty: modelirovanie i ekonomicheskaya otsenka [Large-scale investment projects: modeling and economic evaluation]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2003, 264 p.
Pyatkov B.V. Upravlenie riskami khozyaistvennoi deyatel'nosti sub"ektov elektroenergeticheskogo rynka. V kn.: Metodicheskie voprosy issledovaniya nadezhnosti bol'shikh sistem energetiki [Risk management in the economic activity of the electricity market actors. In: Methodological issues in researching the reliability of large-scale power systems]. Irkutsk, Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences Publ., 2005, 250 p.
Kessides I.N. Nuclear Power: Understanding the Economic Risks and Uncertainties. Energy Policy, 2010, vol. 38, iss. 8, pp. 3849–3864. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.005
Wright G., Goodwin P. Decision Making and Planning under Low Levels of Predictability: Enhancing the Scenario Method. International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, vol. 25, iss. 4, pp. 813–825. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019
Mohn K., Misund B. Investment and Uncertainty in the International Oil and Gas Industry. Energy Economics, 2009, vol. 31, iss. 2, pp. 240–248. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2008.10.001
Cohen G., Joutz F., Loungani P. Measuring Energy Security: Trends in the Diversification of Oil and Natural Gas Supplies. Energy Policy, 2011, vol. 39, iss. 9, pp. 4860–4869. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.034
Chester L. Conceptualizing Energy Security and Making Explicit Its Polysemic Nature. Energy Policy, 2010, vol. 38, iss. 2, pp. 887–895. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.10.039
Sovacool B.K. The Methodological Challenges of Creating a Comprehensive Energy Security Index. Energy Policy, 2012, vol. 48, pp. 835–840. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.017
Smirnov V.A. Problemy povysheniya gibkosti v energetike [Problems of increasing the flexibility in the energy sector]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1989, 192 p.
Smirnov V.A. Protsessy adaptatsii v razvitii energetiki [Processes of adaptation in the energy complex development]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1983, 196 p.
Suslov N.I. Analiz vzaimodeistvii ekonomiki i energetiki v period rynochnykh preobrazovanii [Analysis of interaction between the economy and energy sector during the period of market reforms]. Novosibirsk, Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences Publ., 2002, 270 p.
Gal'perova E.V., Kononov Yu.D., Mazurova O.V. [Forecasting the demand for energy in the region considering its cost]. Region, 2008, no. 3, pp. 207–219. (In Russ.)
Kononov Yu.D. Puti povysheniya obosnovannosti dolgosrochnykh prognozov razvitiya TEK [Ways to improve the validity of long-term forecasts of the energy sector's development]. Novosibirsk, Nauka Publ., 2015, 147 p.
Voropai N.I., Podkoval'nikov S.V., Trufanov V.V. et al. Obosnovanie razvitiya elektroenergeticheskikh sistem: metodologiya, modeli, metody, ikh ispol'zovanie [Underpinning the development of electric power systems: methodology, models, methods and their use]. Novosibirsk, Nauka Publ., 2015, 448 p.
