Subject Earlier studies helped formulate the conclusion about low economic and social efficiency of management of structures involved in mineral water production in the region. This served as a basis for further research. Objectives The aim is to improve the organization and management of these economic structures through optimizing the mineral water production (considering the seasonality factor of consumption). Methods Theoretical and methodological basis includes fundamental and applied research in spatial economics and economic analysis by domestic and foreign scholars. Results The paper describes the methodological approach to developing a multifactor model of operations of economic structures producing mineral water in the region, and forecasting the volumes of tax payments to budgets of different levels. Choosing the tax payments to the budgets as a performance indicator enables to analyze the achievement of strategic objectives, i.e. sustainable development of the real sector, improvement of people's life quality and welfare. Conclusions The research procedure for improving the mineral water production efficiency in regions should rest on the systemic use of adaptive prediction techniques and forecasting based on seasonal patterns in analysis, evaluation and management. The choice of specific methods of forecasting should consider characteristics of investigated processes, forecasting purposes, resource availability, etc. Regional management should apply econometric modeling and adaptive forecasting of key performance indicators of mineral water producers to develop and underpin efficient management decisions at the micro and meso level in the system of management by objectives.
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