+7 925 966 4690, 9am6pm (GMT+3), Monday – Friday
ИД «Финансы и кредит»

JOURNALS

  

FOR AUTHORS

  

SUBSCRIBE

    
Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Forecasting the production of mineral water by regional economic structures subject to seasonal patterns

Vol. 15, Iss. 4, APRIL 2016

Received: 4 February 2016

Accepted: 10 March 2016

Available online: 27 April 2016

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: R15

Pages: 164-178

Gerasimov A.N. Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russian Federation
gerasimov_77_77@mail.ru

P'yanov A.S. OOO Research and Development Company PRO-analitika, Stavropol, Russian Federation
pyanov-s@list.ru

Skripnichenko Yu.S. Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russian Federation
maxim-84@list.ru

Subject The study was initiated due to a distinct need to improve the economic and social efficiency of management structures for mineral water production.
Objectives The aim is to substantiate tactical measures in the regional management to improve the efficiency of business processes implemented at the companies under consideration.
Methods The fundamental and applied research by domestic and foreign scholars in spatial economy and economic analysis, relevant publications in periodicals addressing the strategic management in the management of regional socio-economic systems served as a theoretical and methodological basis of the paper. To predict the mineral water production output by economic structures of seasonal nature of the Stavropol Krai, we apply seasonality indices.
Results We performed spatial econometric modeling and medium and short-term forecasting of the performance of regional economic structures involved in mineral water production in the context of the established evaluation components (industrial, organizational, administrative, economic and social). This enabled us to formalize a procedure for development and validation of effective management decisions at the micro- and meso- level.
Conclusions Results of adaptive prediction of the economic structures' development in the region should be regarded as an essential tool of evidence-based development plans, guidelines for probabilistic organizational and administrative, industrial, economic and social development of economic entities for elaboration and implementation of effective management decisions.

Keywords: region, regional socio-economic system, forecasting, projection, spatial economics

References:

  1. Bobryshev A.N., Kazakov M.Yu. [On determinants and the search for new forms of regional development]. Upravlenie Ekonomicheskimi Sistemami, 2011, no. 33. (In Russ.) Available at: Link.
  2. Gromov E.I. Printsipy upravleniya i planirovaniya sotsio-ekologo-ekonomicheskoi sistemy makroregiona [Principles of management and planning of socio-ecological-economic system of the macro-region]. TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2013, vol. 11, no. 1-3, pp. 140–144.
  3. Davydov A.B., Yakovenko V.S. Splain-tekhnologii ekonomicheskogo analiza regional'nogo prodovol'stvennogo rynka [Spline technologies of economic analysis of the regional food market]. Sovremennye naukoemkie tekhnologii = Modern High Technologies, 2006, no. S1, pp. 24–29.
  4. Egorova M.V., Avilova V.V. Model' regional'noi innovatsionnoi sistemy: teoretiko-metodologicheskii aspekt [A model of regional innovation system: a theoretical and methodological aspect]. Innovatsii = Innovation, 2007, no. 6, pp. 66–69.
  5. Magomedov A.M. [Institutional environment as a factor of regional economic development]. Upravlenie Ekonomicheskimi Sistemami, 2013, no. 5. (In Russ.) Available at: Link.
  6. Mazaeva T.I., Rogachev A.F. Ekonomiko-statisticheskoe modelirovanie proizvodstva sel'skokhozyaistvennoi produktsii pri obespechenii prodovol'stvennoi bezopasnosti [Economic and statistical modeling of agricultural production in the food security]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2015, no. 4-1, pp. 447–449.
  7. Mel'nik M.V., Nikiforova E.V., Burtseva K.Yu. Sbalansirovannye pokazateli: soderzhanie i interpretatsiya [Balanced Scorecard: the content and interpretation]. Togliatti, Kassandra Publ., 2010, 213 p.
  8. Mingaleva Zh.A., Gershanok G.A. Ustoichivoe razvitie regiona: innovatsii, ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost', konkurentosposobnost' [Sustainable development of the region: innovation, economic security, competitiveness]. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of Region, 2012, no. 3, pp. 68–77.
  9. Molchanenko S.A. Osnovnye pokazateli statisticheskoi identifikatsii sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya regiona [Key indicators of statistical identification of region's socio-economic development]. Aktual'nye voprosy ekonomicheskikh nauk = Topical Issues of Economics, 2014, no. 41-1, pp. 109–114.
  10. Pilyasov A. Politicheskie i ekonomicheskie faktory razvitiya rossiiskikh regionov [Political and economic factors of Russian regions' development]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2003, no. 5, pp. 67–81.
  11. Pchelintsev O.S. Regional'nye usloviya ekonomicheskogo rosta [Regional conditions for economic growth]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2004, no. 3, pp. 53–70.
  12. Pchelintsev O.S. Regiony Rossii: sovremennoe sostoyanie i problema perekhoda k ustoichivomu razvitiyu [Regions of Russia: current state and the problem of transition to sustainable development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2001, no. 1, pp. 102–115.
  13. Rokotyanskaya V.V. Razrabotka strategii ustoichivogo razvitiya regiona s uchetom ratsional'nogo ispol'zovaniya prirodnykh resursov [Developing a strategy for sustainable development of the region based on natural resources management]. Ekonomika, statistika i informatika. Vestnik UMO = Economics, Statistics and Informatics. Bulletin of UMO, 2012, no. 4, pp. 61–65.
  14. Rogachev A.F., Mazaeva T.I. Metodologicheskie podkhody k sistemnomu modelirovaniyu obespecheniya regional'noi prodovol'stvennoi bezopasnosti [Methodological approaches to system modeling to ensure the regional food security]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2015, no. 4-1, pp. 431–434.
  15. Rokotyanskaya V.V., Bondarenko L.V. Faktory konkurentosposobnosti korporativnykh struktur sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoi sistemy regiona [Competitive differentiators of enterprise structures of the region's socio-economic system]. Ekonomika, statistika i informatika. Vestnik UMO = Economics, Statistics and Informatics. Bulletin of UMO, 2012, no. 3-2, pp. 259–263.
  16. Skiter N.N., Rogachev A.F., Shokhnekh A.V., Pleshchenko T.V. Statisticheskii analiz pokazatelei ekologo-ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Volgogradskogo regiona dlya funktsii upravleniya [A statistical analysis of indicators of ecological and economic security of the Volgograd region for control functions]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2014, no. 12-4, pp. 204–209.
  17. Sklyarova Yu.M., Sklyarov I.Yu. Kompleksnaya model' effektivnosti funktsionirovaniya predprinimatel'skoi deyatel'nosti [An integrated model of efficiency of business functioning]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2012, no. 6, pp. 342–347.
  18. Skripnichenko Yu.S. Klasternyi podkhod k postroeniyu territorial'no-proizvodstvennykh sistem [A cluster approach to building the regional and industrial systems]. Vestnik Universiteta (Gosudarstvennyi universitet upravleniya) = University Bulletin (State University of Management), 2011, no. 24, pp. 221–223.
  19. Tatuev A.A. Napravleniya transformatsii regional'nogo razvitiya [Directions of regional development transformation]. TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2010, vol. 8, no. 4-3, pp. 97–100.
  20. Tatuev A.A., Kerefov M.A. Osnova strategii razvitiya Severnogo Kavkaza – v novykh otnosheniyakh prostranstvennoi ekonomiki [The basis of the development strategy of the North Caucasus: under new relationships of the spatial economy]. TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2011, vol. 9, no. 3-2, pp. 100–102.
  21. Turovskii R.F. Osnovy i perspektivy regional'nykh politicheskikh issledovanii [Bases and prospects of regional political studies]. Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya = Polis. Political Studies, 2001, no. 1, pp. 138–156.
  22. Tyaglov S.G. Printsip mnogourovnevogo upravleniya ustoichivym razvitiem regional'noi ekonomiki v chasti obespecheniya ekologo-ekonomicheskikh imperativov [A principle of multi-level management of sustainable development of the regional economy to the extent of ensuring ecological and economic imperatives]. TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2014, vol. 12, no. 2-3, pp. 178–182.
  23. Tyaglov S.G., Boev V.Yu., Panchenko A.S. Sistema otsenki funktsionirovaniya proizvodstvennoi sfery regiona: osnovnye napravleniya i problemy formirovaniya v sovremennykh usloviyakh [A system of assessing the production sphere functioning in the region: main trends and problems of formation in modern conditions]. TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2011, vol. 9, no. 4-2, pp. 127–131.
  24. Yarkova T.M. Mekhanizm upravleniya prodovol'stvennymi zapasami regiona [A mechanism to manage food reserves in the region]. APK: Ekonomika, upravlenie = AIC: Economy, Management, 2013, no. 7, pp. 43–47.

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8725 (Online)
ISSN 2073-039X (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 23, Iss. 9
September 2024

Archive