Subject The study was initiated due to a distinct need to improve the economic and social efficiency of management structures for mineral water production. Objectives The aim is to substantiate tactical measures in the regional management to improve the efficiency of business processes implemented at the companies under consideration. Methods The fundamental and applied research by domestic and foreign scholars in spatial economy and economic analysis, relevant publications in periodicals addressing the strategic management in the management of regional socio-economic systems served as a theoretical and methodological basis of the paper. To predict the mineral water production output by economic structures of seasonal nature of the Stavropol Krai, we apply seasonality indices. Results We performed spatial econometric modeling and medium and short-term forecasting of the performance of regional economic structures involved in mineral water production in the context of the established evaluation components (industrial, organizational, administrative, economic and social). This enabled us to formalize a procedure for development and validation of effective management decisions at the micro- and meso- level. Conclusions Results of adaptive prediction of the economic structures' development in the region should be regarded as an essential tool of evidence-based development plans, guidelines for probabilistic organizational and administrative, industrial, economic and social development of economic entities for elaboration and implementation of effective management decisions.
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