Loktionov V.I.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation vadlok@mail.ru
Importance The article addresses adaptability of energy systems and its role in improving the results of long-term forecasting of market demand for energy. It considers investments as the main factor of adaptability enhancement. Objectives The aim of the paper is to develop decision-making methods in the field of energy system management, which would increase the efficiency of the fuel and energy complex. Methods The study rests on general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis and on special methods to explore the operation of energy systems. Results The analysis demonstrates the need to extend the adaptability concept. The level of energy systems' adaptability should be measured not only by the cost of the system's ability to adapt to external and internal environmental changes, but also by the number of possible and efficient variants of the system's reaction to the changes. Investment in energy systems is considered as the main driver of the energy systems' adaptability. The paper shows how investments influence the level of energy systems' adaptability and considers the impact of growing competition in energy markets on the adaptability of energy systems. Conclusions and Relevance It is necessary to enhance the role of energy systems' adaptability assessment when forecasting the demand for energy, choosing a development strategy and analyzing the efficiency of investment energy projects.
Keywords: adaptability, analysis, investment, system, energy complex
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