Vasil'eva A.V.Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation sa840sha@mail.ru
Importance Efficient regulation of international labor migration in Russian regions to achieve a reasonable balance between maximization of benefits from labor migration and minimization of its negative impact is an important issue of public administration under increasing global mobility of population. It foregrounds forecasting the migratory processes and their economic effects in Russian regions. Objectives The paper aims to develop and implement a model complex to forecast migration processes and their economic effects in regions. Methods The offered model complex enables to predict interdependent development of migration processes and their economic effects in certain order, i.e. simulation of production output and unemployment rate in the region as a result of labor migrants inflow or outflow; simulation of wage levels depending on production and unemployment rate; simulation of inflow or outflow of labor migrants in the region depending on wage level. To automate the model complex implementation using Java/Javascript, we developed a special computer program. Results Applying the model complex to statistical data, we obtained a forecast of migration processes and their economic effects in constituent entities of the Russian Federation up to 2020. Conclusions The obtained results of forecasting characterize the current migration legislation of the Russian Federation as inefficient.
Keywords: international labor migration, production output, unemployment, wage
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