Osetrov E.S.Dubna International University for Nature, Society and Man, Dubna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation esosetrov@gmail.ru
Subject The article considers the possibilities of using state-of-the art approaches to forecasting the demand for transport services. Objectives The purpose is to develop the most efficient and scientifically substantiated approaches and methods to forecasting the passenger demand for transport services. Methods Applying mathematical, statistical and economic methods of analysis, I review the existing approaches to forecasting the passenger demand for transport services. I also analyze the switching of passenger demand from one type of transport to another in the event of implementing a new transport project or changing the parameters of transportation using the existing infrastructure. Results I considered factors influencing the demand for transport services, showed the dependence of gross domestic product of the transport system on the level of energy consumption and technology excellence. The obtained balance equation of meeting the demand for transport services helps determining a numerical value of the quality of forecasting the traffic demand. Conclusions Using the balance equation based on advanced mathematical methods of modeling will improve the efficiency of management of the transport sector, and especially at the stage of preliminary development of investment projects, and ensure time and cost saving in the transportation industry.
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