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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Analysis and forecast of economic growth in the region: Evidence from the Kursk oblast

Vol. 14, Iss. 45, DECEMBER 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 12 October 2015

Accepted: 23 October 2015

Available online: 10 December 2015

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 49-60

Osinevich L.M. Kursk State University, Kursk, Russian Federation
llm176@mail.ru

Subject The article considers the technique to assess the quality of economic growth, using the multiplicative models of production functions including and excluding the innovation factor. The assessment period covers three years and focuses on regions of the Russian Federation.
     Objectives The purpose is to build a production multiplicative function of the region, taking into account various factors, like labor, capital, innovation product output.
     Methods In the analysis, I apply index models with endogenous factor (index of physical volume of GRP) and exogenous factors (index of physical volume of capital investments and growth rate of the number of employees involved in the economy for the same period). The model also includes an additional exogenous factor, i.e. the growth rate of innovation product output as an indicator of innovation processes development in the economy.
     Results Using the built models, I assess the need for annual increase in investment and in the number of employees to overcome inertia in development and to increase growth rates up to targets under various scenarios. The study shows that only significant increase in labor productivity, use of innovation in production will help achieving the target indicators of the Program for socio-economic development of the Kursk oblast over 2011–2015.
     Conclusions I performed the quantitative analysis to determine the substitution rate of capital for labor and vice-versa. The study shows the conditions to achieve target indicators of development in the region and throughout the Russian Federation.

Keywords: modernization, innovation, investment, production function, substitution rate

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