Loktionov V.I.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation vadlok@mail.ru
Subject Assessing the energy system's adaptability to changing conditions is particularly vital under growing political and economic uncertainty and instability. Objectives The aim of the research is to develop methods of decision-making in the sphere of energy system management, which should increase the efficiency of the entire fuel and energy complex of the country. Methods The study rests on general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, as well as on special methods to analyze the operation of energy systems. Results I offer a unique method to perform a supplementary assessment of the level of energy security by using the energy system's adaptability criterion. The study reviewed and amended the list of groups of factors affecting the adaptability of energy systems and their development scenarios. Additional factors include such financial and investment factors as the level of financial market development, financial condition of major participants of projects for energy system development, and the level of interaction between the participants. The analysis of these factors is important, as the level of adaptability of the energy system's development can be improved through tailoring the found variables. I also developed a method to select the most adaptable scenario of the energy system development. Conclusions and Relevance Using the indicator of energy systems' adaptability when assessing the energy security and the strategic planning of the fuel and energy industry development will increase the soundness of decisions and, in the long run, improve the efficiency of energy systems.
Keywords: adaptability, analysis, safety, system, energy sector
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