Loktionov V.I.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation vadlok@mail.ru
Subject When assessing the prospects for the country's economic growth, it is necessary to analyze the long-term development of fuel and energy complex as a major supplier of energy resources. Many basic scientific studies address the issue of assessing the prospects for long-term development of the fuel and energy complex. Nevertheless, the academic literature does not reflect the fact that the level of uncertainty of input data influences the fuel and energy complex's growth. Objectives The objective is to show the mechanism of the impact of uncertainty of initial data on long-term development of the fuel and energy complex. Methods The study rests on scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, and methods of mathematical analysis of data uncertainty. Results I describe the mechanisms of influence of input data uncertainty on long-term development of the fuel and energy complex; present an algorithm to analyze the energy sector's long-term growth dynamics. Conclusions and Relevance In a volatile economy and high level of uncertainty of macroeconomic indicators, the uncertainty of input data takes on greater significance, and should be taken into account when analyzing the options of the energy sector's long-term development. If disregarded, it is difficult to obtain reliable projections for development of both the energy sector and the entire economy.
Keywords: power engineering, analysis, investment, efficiency, uncertainty, forecast
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