Importance Different scenarios of economic development of Russia and other CIS countries may lead to significantly different ecological consequences, which should be considered in strategic decision- making. Therefore, devising the tools to assess the impact of economy on the environment in countries with different levels of economic development acquires greater relevance. Objectives The purpose of the study is to perform a comparative analysis of the impact of economic development on the environment of Russia and Kyrgyzstan. Methods Using the methods of mathematical modeling, we estimate the impact of various economic and demographic factors on the environment. To assess the impact of GDP and population on the environment, we applied IPAT and STIRPAT models, and multiplicative functions enabling to consider the effect of structural changes in the economy, production modernization and environmental investments on environment. Results We have identified a number of mutual relations between the economic growth and environmental quality in Russia and Kyrgyzstan, designed new mathematical models that can be used in strategic planning to predict possible environmental consequences of economic growth. We show the advantages and possibility of applying these models to analyze and forecast the effects of economic development on environment. Conclusions and Relevance The GDP growth (industrial production) leads to increased pollution. The factors contributing to this influence reduction are the technical modernization, structural changes in the economy, and environmental activities. As opposed to Russia, the calculations made for Kyrgyzstan show that not only the GDP but also changes in the population have an impact on environmental performance. The proposed models help assess the impact of economic growth on the environment and highlight the most significant factors contributing to environmental pressure reduction.
Cramer J.C. Population Growth and Air Quality in California. Demography, 1998, vol. 35, pp. 45–56.
Dai H., Sun T., Zhang K., Guo W. Research on Rural Nonpoint Source Pollution in the Process of Urban-Rural Integration in the Economically-Developed Area in China Based on the Improved STIRPAT Model. Sustainability, 2015, vol. 7, pp. 782–793.
Jia J., Deng H., Duan J., Zhao J. Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method – A case study in Henan Province, China. Ecological Economics, 2009, vol. 68, pp. 2818–2824.
Rosa E.A., York R., Dietz T. Tracking the Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecological Impacts. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 2004, vol. 33, pp. 509–512.
York R. De-Carbonization in Former Soviet Republics, 1992–2000: The Ecological Consequences of De-Modernization. Social Problems, 2008, vol. 55, iss. 3, pp. 370–390.
York R., Rosa E.A., Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecological Economics, 2003, vol. 46, iss. 3, pp. 351–365.
Neumayer E. Examining the impact of demographic factors on air pollution. Population and Environment, 2004, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 5–21.
Halkos G.E., Paizanos E.Α. The effect of government expenditure on the environment: An empirical investigation. Ecological Economics, 2013, vol. 91, pp. 48–56.
Marin G., Mazzanti M. The evolution of environmental and labor productivity dynamics. Available at: Link.
Ehrlich P.R, Holdren J.P. Impact of population growth. Science, 1971, vol. 171, no. 3977, pp. 1212–1217.
Gans O., Jöst F. Decomposing the Impact of Population Growth on Environmental Deterioration. Available at: Link.
Lantz V., Feng Q. Assessing income, population, and technology impacts on CO2 emissions in Canada: where’s the EKC? Ecological Economics, 2006, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 229–238.
Shi A. The Impact of Population Pressure on Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1975–1996: Evidence from Pooled Cross-Country Data. Ecological Economics, 2003, vol. 44, no. 1, pp. 29–42.
Chertow M. The IPAT and its variants: changing views of technology and environmental impact. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2001, vol. 4, pp. 13–29.
Dietz S., Neumayer E. Weak and strong sustainability in the SEEA: Concepts and measurement. Ecological Economics, 2007, vol. 61, pp. 617–626.
Wei T. What STIRPAT tells about effects of population and affluence on the environment? Ecological Economics, 2011, vol. 72, pp. 70–74.
Knight K., Rosa E.A. The Environmental Efficiency of Well-Being: A Cross-National Analysis. Social Science Research, 2011, vol. 40, no. 3, pp. 931–949.
Druzhinin P.V., Shkiperova G.T., Moroshkina M.V. Vliyanie razvitiya ekonomiki na okruzhayushchuyu sredu: modelirovanie i analiz raschetov [The effect of economic development on the environment: modeling and analysis of calculations]. Petrozavodsk, Institute of Economics, Karelian Research Centre of RAS Publ., 2010, 119 p.
Druzhinin P.V. Ob otsenke vliyaniya razvitiya ekonomiki na okruzhayushchuyu sredu [Assessing the impact of economic development on the environment]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody = Economics and Mathematical Methods, 2010, no. 4, pp. 3–11.
Molchanova E.V., Kruchek M.M. Ekonometricheskii podkhod k postroeniyu reitingovykh otsenok territorii (na primere Respubliki Kareliya) [The econometric approach to building the ratings of territories (the Republic of Karelia case)]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2014, no. 3, pp. 56–62.
Shkiperova G.T., Druzhinin P.V. Otsenka vliyaniya klimaticheskikh izmenenii na ekonomiku rossiiskikh regionov [Assessing the impact of climate change on the economy of Russian regions]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2014, no. 34, pp. 43–50.
