Subject The subject of the study is the current situation with budgets in Russia, which develops under the influence of the system of budget risks. Objectives The domestic literature has a variety of approaches to budgetary risk identification and classification. However, currently there are no formal tools to analyze these risks and to measure their size in the real budget process. The methods used in the insurance sphere are not applicable. To fill the gap, the article offers the adaptation of the established procedure for risk assessment, which is a holistic process involving the following obligatory elements: identification, analysis and comparative assessment of risk. Methods In the work, I used the method of comparison of the national standards' provisions and the realities of the budgetary process. Results The traditional set of budget risks consists of many types of risks, including without limitation the risk associated with traditional financial and economic operations, risk of inflation, risk of taxpayers' reduced capacity to pay, risk of political environment, risk of budget revenue structure, risk of unbalanced budget, risk of error, risk of economic crisis, risk of corruption, and some others. I recommend applying seven methods of analysis and evaluation, as they are able to provide an assessment of nearly all proposed budget risks. It is a structured scenario analysis under the what if? method, the analysis of the human factor impact, probability and impact matrix, FN curves, risk indices, the scenario analysis and the cost-benefit analysis. The article contains a brief description of applying these methods to analyze individual budget risks. Conclusions Though the considered methods of analyzing the budget risk are universal and relatively simple, they should be applied for the analysis of risks inherent in certain budgets subject to their specifics.
Keywords: fiscal risk, methods, analysis, probability and impact matrix, risk indices, scenario analysis
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