Importance The article deals with the problems of the Russian economy's development, which is in the area of critical risks due to the global crisis, economic sanctions and the falling oil prices. Objectives The objective of the study is to simulate crisis developments and anti-recessionary policy enforced in Russia's economy. The aim of the modeling is to work out priorities for further implementation of anti-recessionary measures, and forecast the economy development subject to possible impact on the key macroeconomic factors on the part of the Russian Government and the Bank of Russia. Results We studied the specifics of the oil price collapse based on consistent arrangement of a number of macroeconomic measures implemented by Great Britain and the USA with involvement of a group of transnational corporations and banks. We performed modelling and graphic visualization of crisis developments in the Russian economy, and made a forecast of its development given the interest rates quoted by the Bank of Russia. The paper includes a model of the economy functioning in the event of its entering the critical risk zone after the manipulative economic and political influence from abroad. The discussed approaches to modeling the crisis developments and anti-recessionary policy and the modeling results may serve for improving the strategies of Russian legislative and executive authorities and within the economic alliances our country is a member of. Conclusions and Relevance We give the rationale for the key finding about the need to move towards consolidated economy through consolidation of governance mechanisms and Russia's global competitiveness factors as part of market principles. We have developed recommendations on the use of cognitive modeling where semantic interpretation plays a significant role. It is important for monitoring the critical risks in Russia's economy to ensure economic security.
Keywords: oil, prices, markets, world, global economy, finance, investment, risks
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