Importance Change of economic conditions necessitates to improve approaches to forecasting based on synthesis of Russian and international experience, as well as the applications of mathematical statistics methods for management of business efficiency. In view of the importance and significance of the income tax for all economic agents (from organizations that pay this tax and to the State that produces income part of the budget), it is advisable to make prediction of the object of taxation on the tax using the mathematical-statistical methods. Objectives The objectives of the study are to assess the possibility of using some mathematical-statistical methods for predictive calculation of the object of taxation for income tax and the choice of the optimal method for a trade organization. Methods The study presents the characteristic of the following forecasting methods: a moving average method, an exponential smoothing method, and a least squares method. The article describes their advantages and disadvantages. The paper deals with the possibility of use of these methods for the prediction of the object of taxation for income tax using the example of a trade organization. Results Application of the least squares method for predictive estimation of the object of taxation for income tax of a trade organization allows getting the most accurate result. Conclusions and Relevance The use of mathematical and statistical methods for the forecast estimation of a tax object for income tax extends the functionality of forward planning of the budget revenue and allows for certain management decisions taken by heads of businesses. The object of the study was the organization specializing in the sale of petroleum products in the Belgorod region, so the findings of the research apply only to similar organizations.
Keywords: prediction, mathematical and statistical methods, profit tax, trading company
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