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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

A model and criteria of decision-making in applied R&D optimal planning in science-intensive industries

Vol. 13, Iss. 44, NOVEMBER 2014

Available online: 30 November 2014

Subject Heading: Management issues

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 2-13

Dutov A.V. Federal State Unitary Enterprise Krylovsky State Scientific Center, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
dutovav@krylov.spb.ru

Klochkov V.V. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
vlad_klochkov@mail.ru

The authors have considered a problem of tactical management of applied R&D activities, which are carried out in the science-intensive industry to create new technologies (i.e. the problem of making a plan of applied R&D). The applied R&D should provide for improving target indicators of products and technologies in accordance with a strategic program of technological development, which in this case is considered as preplanned. These target indicators should reach the preset levels by desired future points of time. The main difficulty in R&D planning is uncertainty of their end dates and achievable results, i.e. improving the technologies of target indicators. This uncertainty decreases as R&D works included into the plan are completed, and technology readiness levels (TRL) are assessed. The risk-related nature of R&D dictates the need to create a diversified plan and to build a portfolio of applied research. However, it is impossible to apply well-elaborated methods of risky financial assets optimization to such a portfolio, as the target function has a fundamentally different structure, and uncertainties are set in the interval form but not in a probabilistic form. We have analyzed possible definitions of the problem of optimal planning of R&D, including the problem of guaranteeing control, that is searching for such a research and development plan, which would ensure the best result in the worst case scenario of works realization (in the event of minimal improvement of target indicators and the longest time periods of R&D work termination). We offer an illustration of uncertainty characteristics of the results of R&D works and their achievement dates, which simplifies decision-making on inclusion of certain research projects into the plan. We have justified the criteria of decision-making in tasks related to making a long-term and short-term plan of R&D works.

Keywords: R&D, control, plan, risk, diversification, portfolio, optimality criteria, interval uncertainty, guaranteeing control

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