Fedorova E.A.Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation ecolena@mail.ru
As the empirical base of the study, I used 26 quarterly macroeconomic and financial indicators from 2003 to 2012 in the CIS countries. On the basis of econometric modeling, i.e., a probit model and binary tree classification, I have developed a set of critical indicators for the CIS countries, defined their critical limits and formed complex crisis indicators with high predictive ability. On the basis of a theoretical review, I have selected indicators, which can be critical indicators for CIS countries. By applying the methodology of binary classification tree, I have developed complex crisis indicators and their critical values. Based on a visual comparison of critical indicators and the EMP indicator, I prove the use of developed critical indicators and application models of binary choice for the forecasting in CIS countries. The integrated indicator includes the GDP growth rate, the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M2, ratio of rates to the rate on deposits and interest rate spread. Application of the proposed research methodology for Azerbaijan and Belarus does not provide a qualitative analysis. The explanation for this is the fact that these countries are very poorly integrated into the space of the CIS, have weak partnerships with other States, as well as do not correspond to normal market development model. The rest of the countries almost entirely repeat the behavior indicators in Russia, what is explained by a high level of financial integration between the studied countries.
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