Gulyaev P.V.Scientific-Research Institute of Regional Economy of North, North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov, Yakutsk, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation petr_gulyaev@mail.ru
Popova T.N.Scientific-Research Institute of Regional Economy of North, North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov, Yakutsk, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russian Federation zim11@inbox.ru
Fiscal policy priorities are the creation of an efficient system of public expenditure management, the streamlining and ensuring the socio-economic impact of the budget. Therefore, there is a need to study the prospects of introduction of new methods of budget forecasting. To improve the effectiveness of budget management in the performance of the State budget, to supply the Government of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) with aggregated information to evaluate the influence of various factors on the condition of public finance, it is necessary to use methods of mathematical modeling of dynamics of budget expenditures. Applying the tools of mathematical modeling provides impartial analysis, more accurate forecasting, and confirms the accuracy of the findings. The article examines the dynamics of budget expenditures in relation to labor costs and utilities. The authors have conducted a regression analysis of the dependence of the total budget on the changes in labor costs and utilities and constructed a model adequately describing the monitoring process. For the effective use of budgetary resources, as a hypothesis, the authors put forward the possibility of applying the model with the transmitter in forecasting the budget expenditure of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The relevance of the research topic is driven by the need to assess the impact of various expenditures on total budget expenditure as a whole, since the budget of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) is the primary mechanism for the social and economic policies.
Keywords: forecasting, budget expenditure, model with gearing ratios, dependence, labor remuneration, public utilities, regression analysis
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