+7 925 966 4690, 9am6pm (GMT+3), Monday – Friday
ИД «Финансы и кредит»

JOURNALS

  

FOR AUTHORS

  

SUBSCRIBE

    
Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Assessing the level of pricing discretion in the electricity market (the case of the Ural zone)

Vol. 13, Iss. 34, SEPTEMBER 2014

Available online: 16 September 2014

Subject Heading: STRATEGY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 36-43

Fedorova E.A. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
Ecolena@Mail.Ru

Sheina K.I. Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Voronezh, Russian Federation
myspoonis2bigg@gmail.com

The wholesale electricity market includes the bilateral contracts market and the day-ahead market. For generated energy purchase and sale the bilateral contracts market uses both regulated and deregulated prices (for regulated and free bilateral contracts respectively). Over 2013 the regulated contracts have accounted for about 15% of the total transaction volume. In this paper we have checked a hypothesis as to the level of "liberty" of the electricity market. A characteristic feature of a competitive market is that the demand and supply factors determine prices. Therefore, if these factors are significant, the market is competitive. We used such factors as generation and consumption (actual and planned values), margin, a difference between the actual and planned consumption value ("deviation"), oil and gas prices and some climate determinants as demand and supply determinants. We have obtained the data from the official site of the UES System Operator. In our estimation, we used daily data for the period from 2010 to 2013. With a help of regression, we found meaningful determinants. Our conclusion is that such factors as temperature deviation, oil and gas prices, lagged price and dollar exchange rate determine the variation of the resulting indicator by about 80%.

Keywords: electricity market, pricing, economic and mathematical modeling, electricity reform

References:

  1. RF Government Resolution “On Amendments to certain acts of the Government of the Russian Federation on determining sale volumes of electrical energy at free (unregulated) prices” of April 07, 2007 № 205. (In Russ.)
  2. RF Government Resolution “On Pricing in the sphere of regulated prices (tariffs) in the electric power industry” of December 29, 2011 № 1178. (In Russ.)
  3. Fedorova E.A., Ershova I.A., Shapovalova V.A., Cherepennikova Yu.G. Prognozirovanie krizisnykh sostoyanii rossiiskogo finansovogo rynka s pomoshch'yu analiza vzaimosvyazi tseny na neft' i valyutnogo kursa [Forecasting crisis phases of the Russian financial market by analyzing the correlation between oil prices and exchange rate]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya – Financial analytics: science and experience, 2012, no. 31, pp. 29–36.
  4. Bajkowski J. A Look at Different Measures of Short-Term Influences on Prices. Stock Fundamentals, 2011.
  5. Bunn D., Andresen A., Westgaar S. Modelling and Forecasting Price Risk With Quantile Factor Models. Norwegian University of Since and Technology, 2008.
  6. Girish G.P., Vijayalakshmi S. Determinants of Electricity Price in Competitive Power Market. International Journal of Business and Management, 2013.
  7. Guirguis H., Felder F. Further Advances in Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Using Time Series Models. International Journal of Forecasting, 2011.
  8. Hagemann S. Price Determinants in the German Intraday Market for Electricity: An Empirical Analysis. EWL Working Paper, 2013, no. 18/2013.
  9. Jongmin Yu. Exchange Rate Effect on Carbon Price via Energy Markets. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2012.
  10. Nektaria V. Karakatsani, Derek W. Bunn. Forecasting Electricity Prices: The Impact of Fundamentals and Time-Varying Coefficients. International Journal of Forecasting, 2008.
  11. Thoenes S. Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011. Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne, 2011.
  12. Weron R., Misiorek A. Forecasting Spot Electricity Prices: A Comparison of Parametric and Semiparametric Time Series Models. International Journal of Forecasting, 2008.

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8725 (Online)
ISSN 2073-039X (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 23, Iss. 3
March 2024

Archive